29 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa prediction & result

KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Pogon Szczecin.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Zaglebie Lubin, 28% draw, 33% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zaglebie Lubin at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zaglebie Lubin5%Draw93%Pogon Szczecin2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
Filip Čuić
Filip Kocaba
25'
25'
Valentin Cojocaru
Michalis Kosidis
27'
Kamil Nowogoński
31'
33'
Kellyn Acosta
Roman Yakuba
44'
🔁K. Nowogonskiout: S. Kerk
46'
46'
🔁D. Churlinovout: B. Mendy
47'
Benjamin Mendy
63'
🔁K. Acostaout: F. Ulvestad
🔁M. Mlinaricout: J. Sypek
69'
🔁M. Kosidisout: F. Szymczak
69'
74'
🔁M. Wojciechowskiout: J. Bieganski
🔁M. Grzybekout: S. Lyczko
84'
90+2'
🔁P. Mukairuout: M. Juwara

Match stats — Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin

63%Possession37%
16Shots8
6On target1
2Corners3
1.37xG0.82

Goals against chances

Zaglebie Lubin0 from 1.37 xGless than the chances were worth
Pogon Szczecin0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zaglebie Lubin 3-4-2-1
  • 33Z. AlomerovicG
  • 5A. LawniczakD
  • 4D. MichalskiD
  • 3R. YakubaD
  • 13M. GrzybekM
  • 26J. KolanM
  • 39F. KocabaM
  • 71K. NowogonskiM
  • 44M. RegulaF
  • 88M. MlinaricF
  • 9M. KosidisF
Substitutes
  • 1J. BuricG
  • 25M. NalepaD
  • 31I. OrlikowskiD
  • 38S. KarasinskiD
  • 94M. UrbanskiD
  • 8D. DabrowskiM
  • 7J. SypekM
  • 20M. DziewiatowskiM
  • 37S. KerkM
Coach: Leszek Ojrzynski
Pogon Szczecin 4-1-4-1
  • 77V. CojocaruG
  • 15H. AliD
  • 13D. KeramitsisD
  • 41A. SzalaiD
  • 4Leo BorgesD
  • 16P. DziczekM
  • 18P. MukairuM
  • 3K. AcostaM
  • 35M. WojciechowskiM
  • 21D. ChurlinovM
  • 10F. CuicF
Substitutes
  • 33A. PeskovicG
  • 89A. FojutG
  • 23B. MendyD
  • 29L. WillenD
  • 75A. OssowskiD
  • 6J. BieganskiM
  • 8F. UlvestadM
  • 47N. LawaM
  • 11K. GrosickiM
Coach: Oscar Garcia Junyent

Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin

Zaglebie Lubin

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Radomiak Radom23 August 2026
  • W2-1Slask Wroclaw15 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa9 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Legia Warszawa2 August 2026
  • W2-0Piast Gliwice27 July 2026

Pogon Szczecin

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
  • W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Cracovia Krakow3 August 2026
  • L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026

What these results say

  • Zaglebie Lubin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pogon Szczecin scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pogon Szczecin conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Zaglebie Lubin146531817+123
4Pogon Szczecin137332015+524

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin

  • 4 July 2026Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Pogon SzczecinFriendlies Clubs
  • 15 May 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 24 November 2025Pogon Szczecin 5–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 1 February 2025Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 4 December 2024Pogon Szczecin 4–3 Zaglebie LubinCup
  • 28 July 2024Zaglebie Lubin 2–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin

Zaglebie Lubin

GoalsAssists

  • M. Reguła50

Pogon Szczecin

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Sánchez91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Zaglebie Lubin at 39% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Filip Čuić (Pogon Szczecin) 23'. On expected goals it finished 1.37–0.82.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.