30 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan Ekstraklasa prediction & result

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Final score: Widzew Łódź 2-3 Lech Poznan.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Widzew Łódź, 29% draw, 34% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Widzew Łódź at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Widzew Łódź4%Draw92%Lech Poznan4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽A. Kozubalassist: P. Walemark
22'
⚽A. Sayyadmaneshassist: P. Walemark
⚽K. Swiderskiassist: M. Fornalczyk
27'
Ángel Baena
45+1'
⚽M. Fornalczykassist: S. Kapuadi
53'
68'
🔁Y. Agneroout: L. Palma
70'
Radosław Murawski
🔁E. Kornvigout: G. Papanikolaou
70'
🔁K. Swiderskiout: S. Bergier
70'
75'
🔁R. Murawskiout: G. Berggren
75'
🔁P. Rodriguezout: F. Jagiello
🔁M. Fornalczykout: S. Biuk
81'
🔁F. Alvarezout: A. Klukowski
86'
88'
🔁P. Walemarkout: W. Szymczak
•Mateusz Żyro
90+1'
90+7'
Luis Palma
90'
⚽L. Palma

Match stats — Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan

38%Possession62%
14Shots14
7On target9
7Corners9
0.8xG1.89

Goals against chances

Widzew Łódź2 from 0.80 xGmore than the chances were worth
Lech Poznan3 from 1.89 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Widzew Łódź 4-1-4-1
  • 1B. DragowskiG
  • 91M. KrajewskiD
  • 4M. ZyroD
  • 3S. KapuadiD
  • 40M. GarciaD
  • 18L. SelahiM
  • 77A. Baena PerezM
  • 10F. AlvarezM
  • 8E. KornvigM
  • 7M. FornalczykM
  • 28K. SwiderskiF
Substitutes
  • 30V. IlicG
  • 33J. KrzywanskiG
  • 14R. VisusD
  • 19D. MalesM
  • 5G. PapanikolaouM
  • 79S. BiukM
  • 20A. KlukowskiM
  • 99S. BergierF
Coach: Aleksandar Vukovic
Lech Poznan 4-4-2
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2J. PereiraD
  • 27W. MonkaD
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 10P. WalemarkM
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 43A. KozubalM
  • 17A. SayyadmaneshM
  • 7Y. AgneroF
  • 21P. RodriguezF
Substitutes
  • 33M. PruchniewskiG
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 5G. BerggrenM
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 53K. DelikatM
  • 24F. JagielloM
  • 56W. Szymczak
Coach: Niels Frederiksen

Form going into Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan

Widzew Łódź

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to Slask Wroclaw22 August 2026
  • L1-2Korona Kielce15 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Jagiellonia9 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Wisla Plock31 July 2026
  • D2-2Motor Lublin26 July 2026

Lech Poznan

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to FC Thun27 August 2026
  • W7-0FC Thun20 August 2026
  • W5-0away to KI Klaksvik14 August 2026
  • W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
  • W1-0KI Klaksvik6 August 2026

What these results say

  • Widzew Łódź failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Widzew Łódź scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Widzew Łódź142842019+114
1Lech Poznan1310213413+2132

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan

  • 7 March 2026Widzew Łódź 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 31 August 2025Lech Poznan 2–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 31 January 2025Lech Poznan 4–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 27 July 2024Widzew Łódź 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 19 May 2024Widzew Łódź 1–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 26 November 2023Lech Poznan 1–3 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan

Widzew Łódź

GoalsAssists

  • K. Świderski51

Lech Poznan

GoalsAssists

  • P. Wålemark73
  • Pablo Rodríguez67
  • A. Sayyadmanesh50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lech Poznan won 3–2 at Widzew Łódź. The model had leaned towards a win for Widzew Łódź at 37% and given a win for Lech Poznan 34%. The goals: A. Kozubal 6' for Lech Poznan, A. Sayyadmanesh 22' for Lech Poznan, K. Swiderski 27' for Widzew Łódź, M. Fornalczyk 53' for Widzew Łódź, L. Palma 90' for Lech Poznan. On expected goals it finished 0.80–1.89.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.