Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Gornik Zabrze 2-3 GKS Katowice.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Gornik Zabrze, 28% draw, 27% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Gornik Zabrze at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. SchulzeG
- 61M. SacekD
- 26R. JanickiD
- 20JosemaD
- 64E. JanzaD
- 18L. SadilekM
- 82K. UrbanskiM
- 8P. BernardoM
- 19Peter FedericoF
- 11E. PrekopF
- 33M. KhlanF
- 99T. LoskaG
- 21O. ZmrzlyD
- 2P. WarczakD
- 66M. DietzD
- 3M. SynosD
- 14J. KubickiM
- 28B. DonioM
- 23S. LisethF
- 9J. AntisteF
- 87G. KobylakG
- 6L. KlemenzD
- 4A. JedrychD
- 55P. RestaD
- 97E. JirkaM
- 68B. WolskiM
- 77M. KowalczykM
- 8B. GalanM
- 15E. MarkovicF
- 17I. ShkurinF
- 27B. NowakF
- 1M. KikolskiG
- 30A. CzerwinskiD
- 14M. OlsenD
- 10M. WedrychowskiM
- 31S. BartlewiczM
- 7M. WdowiakM
- 22S. MilewskiM
- 23M. WasielewskiD
- 19K. LukasiakM
Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice
Gornik Zabrze
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Monaco27 August 2026
- L2-3Monaco20 August 2026
- W2-1Wisla Krakow16 August 2026
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC13 August 2026
- W3-1away to Radomiak Radom8 August 2026
GKS Katowice
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Wisla Plock23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Motor Lublin16 August 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Tel Aviv12 August 2026
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Hapoel Tel Aviv6 August 2026
What these results say
- Gornik Zabrze scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Gornik Zabrze.
- GKS Katowice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 31 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice
- 28 February 2026GKS Katowice 3–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 23 August 2025Gornik Zabrze 3–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 30 March 2025GKS Katowice 2–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 21 September 2024Gornik Zabrze 3–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 27 September 2023GKS Katowice 0–4 Gornik ZabrzeCup
- 20 October 2022GKS Katowice 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeCup
Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and GKS Katowice
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski51
GKS Katowice
GoalsAssists
- I. Shkurin82
- B. Nowak78
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
GKS Katowice won 3–2 at Gornik Zabrze. The model had leaned towards a win for Gornik Zabrze at 45% and given a win for GKS Katowice 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: I. Shkurin 11' for GKS Katowice, K. Urbanski (penalty) 75' for Gornik Zabrze, Josema 76' for Gornik Zabrze, I. Shkurin 90' for GKS Katowice, I. Shkurin 90' for GKS Katowice. On expected goals it finished 2.50–1.56.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.