Athletic Club vs Sevilla La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club 1-3 Sevilla.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Athletic Club, 27% draw, 29% Sevilla — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Athletic Club at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club vs Sevilla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Unai SimónG
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 5Yeray ÁlvarezD
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 17Yuri BerchicheD
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 28Peio CanalesM
- 9Iñaki WilliamsM
- 8Oihan SancetM
- 7Álex BerenguerM
- 11Gorka GuruzetaF
- 13Alex PadillaG
- 19Adama BoiroD
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 31Johaneko Louis JeanD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 20Alejandro Rego MoraM
- 10Nico WilliamsF
- 16Iñigo Ruiz de GalarretaM
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 1Odysseas VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 12Arouna SanganteD
- 5Andres CastrinD
- 17Gabriel SuazoD
- 6Lucien AgouméM
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 30Miguel SierraM
- 10Peque FernándezM
- 19OsoM
- 9Robbie UreF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 33Rafa RomeroG
- 34Iker MuñozD
- 3Julio DíazD
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 27Nico GuillénM
- 37Ibra SowF
- 28Manu BuenoM
- 8Giorgi KochorashviliM
Form going into Athletic Club vs Sevilla
Athletic Club
No earlier matches on record this season.
Sevilla
- W2-1Rayo Vallecano15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Athletic Club | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Sevilla
- 22 August 2026Athletic Club 1–3 SevillaLa Liga
- 24 January 2026Sevilla 2–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 17 August 2025Athletic Club 3–2 SevillaLa Liga
- 16 March 2025Sevilla 0–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 29 September 2024Athletic Club 1–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Athletic Club 2–0 SevillaLa Liga