21 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Erzurumspor FK vs Galatasaray Süper Lig prediction & result

Erzurum
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Erzurumspor FK 0-4 Galatasaray.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Erzurumspor FK, 24% draw, 50% Galatasaray — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Galatasaray at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Erzurumspor FK0%Draw1%Galatasaray99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽R. Sallai
20'
⚽Y. Akgunassist: V. Osimhen
45'
⚽V. Osimhen
🔁G. Kerkout: N. Akhundzade
55'
66'
🔁R. Sallaiout: W. Singo
66'
🔁I. Jakobsout: E. Elmali
66'
🔁M. Leminaout: L. Ugochukwu
66'
🔁Y. Akgunout: L. Sane
🔁O. Ovacikliout: F. Ebosele
70'
🔁E. Tozluout: Fernando Andrade
70'
🔁M. Fettahogluout: S. Akgun
76'
🔁M. Rodriguezout: M. Cardoso
76'
79'
⚽V. Osimhenassist: Gabriel Sara
81'
🔁L. Torreiraout: R. Nhaga
Nariman Akhundzade
84'

Match stats — Erzurumspor FK vs Galatasaray

48%Possession52%
12Shots10
4On target4
2Corners2
0.49xG2.56

Goals against chances

Erzurumspor FK0 from 0.49 xGabout what the chances were worth
Galatasaray4 from 2.56 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Erzurumspor FK 4-1-4-1
  • 31M. OrbanicG
  • 53O. OvacikliD
  • 4A. GerxhaliuD
  • 3Y. KirtayD
  • 18N. MujakicD
  • 6B. BaiyeM
  • 99M. FettahogluM
  • 42E. OwusuM
  • 65M. RodriguezM
  • 9G. KerkM
  • 10E. TozluF
Substitutes
  • 1E. TaskiranG
  • 2F. EboseleD
  • 22M. YumluD
  • 15G. GiorbelidzeD
  • 8S. AkgunM
  • 5M. Akpinar
  • 20M. CardosoF
  • 90N. AkhundzadeF
  • 7I. SeverF
Coach: Serkan Ozbalta
Galatasaray 4-2-3-1
  • 1U. CakirG
  • 7R. SallaiD
  • 6D. SanchezD
  • 42A. BardakciD
  • 4I. JakobsD
  • 34L. TorreiraM
  • 99M. LeminaM
  • 11Y. AkgunM
  • 8Gabriel SaraM
  • 53B. YilmazM
  • 45V. OsimhenF
Substitutes
  • 24J. YilmazG
  • 90W. SingoD
  • 17E. ElmaliD
  • 23K. AyhanD
  • 88K. KaratasD
  • 91A. UnyayD
  • 20I. GundoganM
  • 18L. UgochukwuM
  • 74R. NhagaM
Coach: Okan Buruk

Form going into Erzurumspor FK vs Galatasaray

Erzurumspor FK

  • L0-3away to Amed16 August 2026

Galatasaray

  • D2-2Çorum FK14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Erzurumspor FK5113211-94
1Galatasaray5410136+713

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Erzurumspor FK vs Galatasaray

  • 21 August 2026Erzurumspor FK 0–4 GalatasaraySüper Lig
  • 27 February 2021Galatasaray 2–0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
  • 24 October 2020Erzurumspor FK 1–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
  • 3 March 2019Erzurumspor FK 1–1 GalatasaraySüper Lig
  • 28 September 2018Galatasaray 1–0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Erzurumspor FK and Galatasaray

Erzurumspor FK

  • E. Tozlu2 goals

Galatasaray

  • V. Osimhen6 goals2 assists
  • Gabriel Sara2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.