RED Star FC 93
vs
Metz
Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: RED Star FC 93 1-0 Metz.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% RED Star FC 93, 28% draw, 40% Metz — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: RED Star FC 93 1.31, Metz 1.60.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: RED Star FC 93 vs Metz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Metz at 40% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — RED Star FC 93 vs Metz
Line-ups
- 16G. PoussinG
- 2T. MagninD
- 20D. DurivauxD
- 4E. ZidaneD
- 3M. HuardD
- 19I. HalifaM
- 17S. RenelM
- 11K. CisséM
- 10S. KhaouiM
- 23J. Ikanga A NgeleM
- 91K. CabralF
- 5J. EscartinD
- 45Cheick KonateM
- 21Idrissa SabalyM
- 8G. TraniM
- 27G. KyeremehF
- 7D. DurandF
- 6B. DangerD
- 1Yanis Benchaouch MartyG
- 25Leonardo ButaD
- 1J. FischerG
- 70B. SarrD
- 42C. DevenishD
- 4U. MboulaD
- 2M. ColinD
- 18B. MunongoM
- 8J. DeminguetM
- 21J. PandoreM
- 10T. SavanierM
- 9G. AbuashviliM
- 11P. FallF
- 88A. Agne BaF
- 22N. MbalaF
- 33Abdourahmane MbodjF
- 6N. MendyM
- 3F. MiguelD
- 5J. RuizD
- 7Ibou SanéF
- 39B. SongD
- 61P. SyG
Form going into RED Star FC 93 vs Metz
RED Star FC 93
- W2-1away to Laval4 September 2026
- L1-4Reims29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne21 August 2026
- D0-0Sochaux14 August 2026
Metz
- W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
- D1-1Laval22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Grenoble14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | RED Star FC 93 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Metz | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: RED Star FC 93 vs Metz
- 14 September 2026RED Star FC 93 1–0 MetzLigue 2
- 19 July 2025Metz 4–0 RED Star FC 93Friendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2025Metz 2–2 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
- 29 October 2024RED Star FC 93 1–0 MetzLigue 2
- 26 April 2019RED Star FC 93 1–2 MetzLigue 2
- 4 December 2018Metz 2–0 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
Leading scorers: RED Star FC 93 and Metz
RED Star FC 93
- D. Durand2 goals
Metz
- P. Fall5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.31 goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.60 for Metz; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jovany Ikanga A Ngele 58' (RED Star FC 93).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Metz the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 against 1.6 for Metz. RED Star FC 93's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.28 for Metz.