Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Mineiro 0-1 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Atletico Mineiro, 27% draw, 30% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Mineiro at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 40VitãoD
- 13LyancoD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 21Alan FrancoM
- 15Kevin CastañoM
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 30Victor HugoM
- 17Igor GomesM
- 19ReinierF
- 8MayconM
- 27Alan MindaF
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 29Cauã Campos SoaresF
- 11BernardM
- 31Robert AlvesG
- 36Kauã PasciniD
- 23Ángelo PreciadoD
- 25Tomás PérezM
- 81Otávio CostaG
- 12William FurtadoD
- 34Jonathan JesusD
- 43João MarceloD
- 25Lucas VillalbaD
- 29Lucas RomeroM
- 5Zé LucasM
- 99Keny ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 8GersonM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 6Matías ViñaD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 22Néiser VillarrealM
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 1CássioG
- 23FagnerD
- 27Gabriel RojasD
- 20WesleyF
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro
Atletico Mineiro
Serie A
- L2-3away to Flamengo26 October 2026
- W1-0Coritiba17 October 2026
Cruzeiro
Serie A
- W1-0Remo23 October 2026
- W4-2away to Gremio18 October 2026
- L2-4away to RB Bragantino13 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 51 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro
Atletico Mineiro and Cruzeiro have met 7 times in the records we hold, Atletico Mineiro has won 3 of them to Cruzeiro's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
Cruzeiro won the last one 1–0 on 29 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Cruzeiro | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 29 Oct 2026
Serie AAtletico Mineiro 0–1 Cruzeiro - 2 Sep 2026
Copa Do BrasilAtletico Mineiro 2–1 Cruzeiro - 26 Aug 2026
Copa Do BrasilCruzeiro 1–1 Atletico Mineiro - 3 May 2026
Serie ACruzeiro 1–3 Atletico Mineiro - 8 Mar 2026
Mineiro - 1Cruzeiro 1–0 Atletico Mineiro - 25 Jan 2026
Mineiro - 1Atletico Mineiro 2–1 Cruzeiro - 16 Oct 2025
Serie AAtletico Mineiro 1–1 Cruzeiro
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Cruzeiro's attack rates 36% above Atletico Mineiro's, and Atletico Mineiro concede 14% fewer than Cruzeiro. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 0.80 | 0.96 |
| Cruzeiro | 1.09 | 1.11 |
Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Cruzeiro
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge142
- Matheus Pereira97
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruzeiro won 1–0 at Atletico Mineiro. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Mineiro at 43% and given a win for Cruzeiro 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Kaio Jorge 4' for Cruzeiro. On expected goals it finished 1.65–2.60.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Mineiro these chances to finish in the top four: 26.4% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 4.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 4.9%.
For Cruzeiro the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 55.8% going in: 75.6% after a win, 57.9% after a draw, 42.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.6%, 19.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atletico Mineiro v Cruzeiro has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is Atletico Mineiro's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Atletico Mineiro win43%▼ −2
- Draw27%=
- Cruzeiro win30%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.