21 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Ried vs Grazer AK Bundesliga prediction & result

Innviertel Arena, Ried
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Ried 1-0 Grazer AK.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Ried, 26% draw, 24% Grazer AK — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ried at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ried97%Draw3%Grazer AK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Samuel Johansen Chukwudi
5'
28'
•Anderson
33'
Yannick Oberleitner
39'
Anderson
Niama Pape Sissoko
45+2'
45+2'
Peter Michorl
⚽P. Sissoko (pen)
45'
57'
Beres Owusu
🔁P. Sissokoout: T. Kusanovic
59'
🔁E. E. Aisowierenout: J. Boguo
59'
67'
🔁Andersonout: M. Gragger
67'
🔁A. Hofleitnerout: D. Maderner
🔁J. Nasraweout: M. Rasner
72'
73'
🔁C. Lichtenbergerout: M. Grosse
83'
🔁P. Michorlout: S. Mandey
🔁A. Bajicout: D. Radonjic
87'
Tino Kusanović
90+3'

Match stats — Ried vs Grazer AK

46%Possession54%
16Shots15
3On target3
7Corners4
1.65xG0.83

Goals against chances

Ried1 from 1.65 xGless than the chances were worth
Grazer AK0 from 0.83 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ried 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. LeitnerG
  • 4L. MalicsekD
  • 28S. ChukwudiD
  • 30O. SteurerD
  • 7O. SorgD
  • 22S. SchwabM
  • 6Y. MaartM
  • 12A. BajicM
  • 10J. NasraweM
  • 47E. E. AisowierenM
  • 9P. Sissoko
Substitutes
  • 77F. WimmerG
  • 5D. RadonjicD
  • 33A. GoigingerD
  • 42F. LechnerM
  • 8M. RasnerM
  • 38N. MesicF
  • 19T. Lund-JensenM
  • 21T. KusanovicF
  • 15J. Boguo
Coach: Mario Despotovic
Grazer AK 3-1-4-2
  • 23C. StankovicG
  • 82B. OwusuD
  • 2D. PinesD
  • 27Y. OberleitnerD
  • 8T. KochM
  • 28AndersonM
  • 34P. MichorlM
  • 29I. GuertiM
  • 32L. KlassenM
  • 10C. LichtenbergerF
  • 25A. HofleitnerF
Substitutes
  • 1J. MeierhoferG
  • 48M. GraggerD
  • 72P. MarkovicD
  • 30C. HasenhuttlD
  • 17S. MandeyM
  • 11M. GrosseF
  • 6L. HermeshM
  • 9D. MadernerF
  • 38M. JusF
Coach: Joachim Standfest

Form going into Ried vs Grazer AK

Ried

  • L1-4away to Lask Linz14 August 2026
  • L1-2Rapid Vienna9 August 2026

Grazer AK

  • L0-8away to Rapid Vienna16 August 2026
  • W2-1Austria Lustenau8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Ried6123711-45
7Grazer AK6213414-107

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ried vs Grazer AK

  • 21 August 2026Ried 1–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 21 April 2026Ried 2–1 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 17 April 2026Grazer AK 1–1 RiedBundesliga
  • 1 March 2026Grazer AK 2–1 RiedBundesliga
  • 27 September 2025Ried 0–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 29 March 2024Ried 0–1 Grazer AK2. Liga

Leading scorers: Ried and Grazer AK

Ried

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Grazer AK

  • A. Hofleitner2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.