22 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau Bundesliga prediction & result

Merkur-Arena, Graz
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Lustenau.

Before kick-off the model made it 77% Sturm Graz, 14% draw, 9% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 1.30, 7.14 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sturm Graz at 77% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sturm Graz8%Draw89%Austria Lustenau3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽D. Weixelbraunassist: Danilo Soares
🔁S. Wlodarczykout: N. Weiper
46'
53'
L. Afrifa
⚽S. Jatta (pen)
65'
N. Weiper
66'
🔁E. Sogloout: L. Balbo
67'
🔁S. Seidlout: G. Mamageishvili
67'
67'
🔁A. Gashiout: L. Jastremski
73'
F. Gmeiner
77'
🔁L. Afrifaout: S. Delaye
77'
🔁D. Weixelbraunout: H. Ismailcebioglu
🔁P. Petrovicout: P. Koller
79'
🔁S. Jattaout: B. Beganovic
79'
88'
🔁D. Kacuriout: P. Grabher
89'
🔁A. Verinacout: P. Benjamin
G. Mamageishvili
90+2'
J. Gorenc Stankovic
90+2'
90+5'
H. Ismailcebioglu
90+8'
D. Schierl

Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau

64%Possession36%
12Shots17
4On target6
10Corners8
1.67xG0.73

Goals against chances

Sturm Graz1 from 1.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Austria Lustenau1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sturm Graz 4-4-2
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 28J. HeilD
  • 21P. PetrovicD
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 18E. SogloD
  • 43J. HodlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
  • 39L. WeinhandlM
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 17S. WlodarczykF
  • 20S. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 32C. Wiener-PucherG
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 27L. BalboD
  • 23A. MalicD
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 40J. HalwachsM
  • 26B. BeganovicF
  • 44N. WeiperF
  • 11A. KayomboF
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1
  • 27D. SchierlG
  • 7F. GmeinerD
  • 15E. ChukwuD
  • 29N. PertlwieserD
  • 3Danilo SoaresD
  • 8D. KacuriM
  • 11D. WeixelbraunM
  • 20L. AfrifaM
  • 24S. Diarra
  • 17A. GashiM
  • 39A. VerinacF
Substitutes
  • 30P. Bohm
  • 18R. VoisineD
  • 31M. MaakD
  • 26L. Ibertsberger
  • 19S. DelayeM
  • 23P. GrabherM
  • 61H. IsmailcebiogluM
  • 9L. JastremskiF
  • 14P. BenjaminF
Coach: Markus Mader

Form going into Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau

Sturm Graz

  • W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
  • W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026

Austria Lustenau

  • W2-1Wolfsberger AC15 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Grazer AK8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Sturm Graz632186+211
11Austria Lustenau6123611-55

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau

  • 22 August 2026Sturm Graz 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 25 November 2023Sturm Graz 2–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 19 August 2023Austria Lustenau 0–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 4 March 2023Austria Lustenau 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 18 September 2022Sturm Graz 2–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 30 October 2013Austria Lustenau 0–4 Sturm GrazCup

Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau

Sturm Graz

  • N. Weiper2 goals

Austria Lustenau

  • D. Weixelbraun3 goals1 assists
  • A. Verinac2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.