15 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Rio Ave vs FC Porto Primeira Liga prediction & result

Vila do Conde
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Rio Ave 0-2 FC Porto.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Rio Ave, 26% draw, 46% FC Porto — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Porto at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rio Ave0%Draw1%FC Porto99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽N. Perezassist: G. Veiga
34'
•Jakub Kiwior
🔁R. Galcikout: D. Spikic
59'
66'
🔁D. Gulout: Hwang In-Beom
66'
🔁William Gomesout: B. Sainz
69'
🔁N. Perezout: A. Costa
69'
🔁G. Veigaout: Andre Silva
🔁F. Petrassoout: J. Lomboto
75'
🔁T. Monteiroout: M. Vrousai
75'
82'
⚽B. Sainzassist: Hwang In-Beom
🔁G. Liavasout: M. Patricio
83'
🔁D. Nascimentoout: Samuel
83'
89'
🔁Pepêout: S. Eustaquio

Match stats — Rio Ave vs FC Porto

48%Possession52%
13Shots14
1On target6
6Corners6
0.58xG1.97

Goals against chances

Rio Ave0 from 0.58 xGless than the chances were worth
FC Porto2 from 1.97 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rio Ave 4-3-3
  • 99E. van der GouwG
  • 54G. LiavasD
  • 23F. PetrassoD
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 6N. AbbeyD
  • 30R. Galcik
  • 44T. NikitscherM
  • 90D. NascimentoM
  • 11J. BlesaF
  • 9T. MonteiroF
  • 7Diogo Bezerra
Substitutes
  • 22K. ChamorroG
  • 14J. BrabecD
  • 13J. LombotoD
  • 60CaikeD
  • 83D. BaldeD
  • 79M. PatricioF
  • 70A. WenckM
  • 17M. VrousaiF
  • 27T. MedinaM
Coach: Sotiris Sylaidopoulos
FC Porto 4-3-3
  • 99D. CostaG
  • 18N. PerezD
  • 5J. BednarekD
  • 4J. KiwiorD
  • 12ZaiduD
  • 8V. FroholdtM
  • 13P. RosarioM
  • 10G. VeigaM
  • 7William GomesF
  • 27D. GulF
  • 11PepêF
Substitutes
  • 24J. CostaG
  • 50J. AfonsoG
  • 21D. PrpicD
  • 74F. MouraD
  • 20A. CostaD
  • 6S. EustaquioM
  • 16Hwang In-BeomM
  • 86R. MoraM
  • 19Andre SilvaF
Coach: Francesco Farioli

Form going into Rio Ave vs FC Porto

Rio Ave

  • L0-1away to GIL Vicente9 August 2026

FC Porto

  • W2-0Alverca9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Rio Ave6114514-94
1FC Porto6600152+1318

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rio Ave vs FC Porto

  • 15 August 2026Rio Ave 0–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
  • 22 February 2026FC Porto 1–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 19 September 2025Rio Ave 0–3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
  • 3 February 2025Rio Ave 2–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
  • 24 August 2024FC Porto 2–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 3 February 2024FC Porto 0–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Rio Ave and FC Porto

Rio Ave

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

FC Porto

  • Gabri Veiga3 goals3 assists
  • Borja Sainz3 goals
  • André Silva3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.