Alverca vs Estrela Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alverca 2-2 Estrela.
Before kick-off the model made it 68% Alverca, 16% draw, 16% Estrela — fair odds of 1.47, 6.25 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alverca at 68% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alverca vs Estrela
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 14Steven BaseyaD
- 4Yaya BojangD
- 33Bastien MeupiyouD
- 2Nabil TouaiziM
- 6Davy GuiM
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 12Isaac JamesM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 9VivaldoF
- 35Rayan LucasM
- 55Francisco ChissumbaD
- 8Vasco MoreiraM
- 19Marco EssimiF
- 17Samy Jr MerhegF
- 91JhonatanG
- 20Diogo SpencerD
- 15Ikker dos SantosD
- 18Zakaria KassaryM
- 24Léo LinckG
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 30Luan PatrickD
- 5Stefan LekovićD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 14Lovro ZvonarekM
- 39Eddy DouéM
- 8RobinhoM
- 99Abraham MarcusF
- 37Leandro AntonettiF
- 10Ianis StoicaF
- 21Max ScholzeD
- 93BénitoM
- 71Emerson Pedro VangaM
- 9Sydney van HooijdonkF
- 3Lucas MincarelliD
- 51Diogo PintoG
- 22David GriloG
- 79Atanas ChernevD
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
Form going into Alverca vs Estrela
Alverca
- L0-2away to FC Porto9 August 2026
Estrela
- D2-2Sporting CP8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alverca | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 |
| 6 | Estrela | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alverca vs Estrela
- 15 August 2026Alverca 2–2 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 31 January 2026Alverca 1–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 25 August 2025Estrela 2–2 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Alverca and Estrela
Alverca
- Vivaldo Semedo2 goals
Estrela
- I. Stoica4 goals2 assists
- A. Marcus4 goals1 assists
- L. Antonetti4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.