16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Arouca vs Moreirense Primeira Liga prediction & result

Arouca
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Arouca 4-0 Moreirense.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Arouca, 24% draw, 16% Moreirense — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Arouca at 60% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Maracás
Javi Sánchez
16'
⚽Maracas (OG)
23'
⚽J. Fontanassist: H. Lee
30'
Ivan Barbero
41'
44'
Kiko
⚽I. Barberoassist: N. Djouahra
45'
46'
🔁Guilherme Liberatoout: D. Pinto
46'
🔁A. Vieiraout: J. Veloso
55'
Nile John
🔁I. Barberoout: D. Nandin
59'
63'
🔁Landersonout: Kiko Bondoso
65'
Leandro Santos
🔁H. Leeout: B. Mansilla
72'
🔁A. Trezzaout: P. Gozalbez
72'
72'
🔁Rodriout: M. Stjepanovic
Dylan Nandín
75'
🔁T. Fukuiout: Pedro Santos
79'
🔁E. van Eeout: M. Flores
80'
85'
🔁L. Santosout: M. Dacosta Gonzalez
⚽D. Nandinassist: N. Djouahra
90'

Match stats — Arouca vs Moreirense

51%Possession49%
14Shots5
6On target1
5Corners3
2.14xG0.49

Goals against chances

Arouca4 from 2.14 xGmore than the chances were worth
Moreirense0 from 0.49 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arouca 4-2-3-1
  • 12I. De ArruabarrenaG
  • 28Tiago EsgaioD
  • 15J. SanchezD
  • 3J. FontanD
  • 18O. LebedenkoD
  • 6E. van EeM
  • 8T. FukuiM
  • 19A. TrezzaM
  • 14H. LeeM
  • 7N. DjouahraM
  • 17I. BarberoF
Substitutes
  • 1J. VinarcikG
  • 71M. DuarteG
  • 5B. PopovicD
  • 37M. ClimentD
  • 89Pedro SantosM
  • 24B. MansillaF
  • 10P. GozalbezM
  • 21M. FloresM
  • 9F. MayuluF
Coach: Vasco Seabra
Moreirense 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. FerreiraG
  • 2L. SantosD
  • 66G. BatistaD
  • 26MaracasD
  • 27KikoD
  • 23N. JohnM
  • 65Guilherme Liberato
  • 89A. VieiraM
  • 21RodriM
  • 11LandersonM
  • 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
Substitutes
  • 1AranhaG
  • 4Kevyn MonteiroD
  • 76D. PintoD
  • 17A. MartinezD
  • 20J. VelosoM
  • 8M. StjepanovicM
  • 44M. Dacosta GonzalezF
  • 10Kiko BondosoF
Coach: Vasco Costa

Form going into Arouca vs Moreirense

Arouca

  • W1-0away to Guimaraes8 August 2026

Moreirense

  • D2-2SC Braga9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Arouca631285+310
11Moreirense6213713-67

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arouca vs Moreirense

  • 16 August 2026Arouca 4–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 21 March 2026Moreirense 0–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 2 November 2025Arouca 0–2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 24 January 2025Arouca 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 18 August 2024Moreirense 3–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 17 March 2024Moreirense 1–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Arouca and Moreirense

Arouca

  • Barbero4 goals

Moreirense

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.