VfL Bochum vs Karlsruher SC 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Bochum 3-2 Karlsruher SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% VfL Bochum, 25% draw, 26% Karlsruher SC — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
VfL Bochum at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Bochum vs Karlsruher SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. HornG
- 2S. KlaiberD
- 15M. SteinwenderD
- 5K. MetsD
- 32M. WittekD
- 14J. SteuckersM
- 34T. MeyerM
- 24M. PannewigM
- 10B. TazM
- 33P. HofmannF
- 7C. RasmussenF
- 16T. CasaliG
- 19D. HanslikF
- 17G. HoltmannF
- 39L. IsbruchM
- 4Y. KarademirD
- 23K. MiyoshiM
- 29M. Ouro-TagbaF
- 28C. PatinoM
- 31L. SawasD
- 1H. BernatG
- 22C. KobaldD
- 15Paul SchollD
- 24S. TrémouletD
- 36Rafael Pinto PedrosaM
- 7K. WiethaupM
- 6S. VäänänenM
- 23T. CivejaM
- 3D. OfliM
- 10M. WanitzekM
- 13S. FukudaF
- 19Louey Ben FarhatM
- 33V. BerghD
- 4HélitonD
- 30R. HimmelmannG
- 5Kwon Hyeok-KyuM
- 26D. H. ZorM
- 11N. EichingerM
- 27J. D. MeyerF
- 37J. PonenteF
Form going into VfL Bochum vs Karlsruher SC
VfL Bochum
2. Bundesliga
- W2-1away to Energie Cottbus30 October 2026
- D1-1VfL Wolfsburg23 October 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern17 October 2026
- L0-1Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga
- W2-11. FC Heidenheim31 October 2026
- L1-6away to 1. FC Magdeburg24 October 2026
- W4-0SV Darmstadt 9818 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC St. Pauli11 October 2026
What these results say
- VfL Bochum conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- VfL Bochum failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for VfL Bochum had two goals or fewer.
- Karlsruher SC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Karlsruher SC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Karlsruher SC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 14 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs Karlsruher SC
- 17 May 2026Karlsruher SC 1–2 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 20 December 2025VfL Bochum 2–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 10 December 2022VfL Bochum 1–2 Karlsruher SCFriendlies Clubs
- 31 January 2021VfL Bochum 1–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 27 September 2020Karlsruher SC 0–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 24 May 2020Karlsruher SC 0–0 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and Karlsruher SC
VfL Bochum
GoalsAssists
- P. Hofmann50
Karlsruher SC
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
VfL Bochum beat Karlsruher SC 3–2. The model had made a win for VfL Bochum its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen 6' for VfL Bochum, Kevin Wiethaup 8' for Karlsruher SC, Tim Civeja 50' for Karlsruher SC, Philipp Hofmann 53' for VfL Bochum, Philipp Hofmann 90+2' for VfL Bochum. On expected goals it finished 2.75–1.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave VfL Bochum a 9.2% chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.1% after a win, 9.7% after a draw, 13.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.1%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.
For Karlsruher SC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 25.7% going in: 18.8% after a win, 23.9% after a draw, 29.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.5%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on VfL Bochum v Karlsruher SC has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is VfL Bochum's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- VfL Bochum win49%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Karlsruher SC win26%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.