Alverca vs Santa Clara Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alverca 1-1 Santa Clara.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Alverca, 28% draw, 32% Santa Clara — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alverca at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alverca vs Santa Clara
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 4Y. BojangD
- 12I. JamesD
- 2N. TouaiziM
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 35Rayan LucasM
- 55ChissumbaM
- 7A. VidigalF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 9V. SemedoF
- 91Jhonatan LuizG
- 21S. GomezD
- 20D. SpencerD
- 27T. TamaritF
- 93Ze RafaelM
- 8V. MoreiraM
- 15I. JulianD
- 6D. GuiM
- 18Z. KassaryM
- 1Lucas FrancaG
- 2Diogo CalilaD
- 4P. PachecoD
- 21E. FernandesD
- 5Guilherme RomaoD
- 6P. FerreiraM
- 8J. TavaresM
- 99SorrisoM
- 20T. RibeiroM
- 70Vinicius LopesM
- 9G. PacienciaF
- 12NenecaG
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 3H. SilvaD
- 17VasconcelosM
- 22VitinhoM
- 81S. FofanaM
- 25F. MedeirosF
- 73Leo JacoF
- 11Welinton TorraoF
Form going into Alverca vs Santa Clara
Alverca
- L1-3away to Sporting CP22 August 2026
- D2-2Estrela15 August 2026
Santa Clara
- W1-0Famalicao23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Academico Viseu15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alverca | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alverca vs Santa Clara
- 29 August 2026Alverca 1–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 21 February 2026Alverca 1–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 20 September 2025Santa Clara 2–1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Alverca and Santa Clara
Alverca
- Vivaldo Semedo2 goals
Santa Clara
- Gonçalo Paciência5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.