Alverca vs Santa Clara Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alverca 1-1 Santa Clara.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Alverca, 28% draw, 32% Santa Clara — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Alverca at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alverca vs Santa Clara
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 4Y. BojangD
- 12I. JamesD
- 2N. TouaiziM
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 35Rayan LucasM
- 55ChissumbaM
- 7A. VidigalF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 9V. SemedoF
- 91Jhonatan LuizG
- 21S. GomezD
- 20D. SpencerD
- 27T. TamaritF
- 93Ze RafaelM
- 8V. MoreiraM
- 15I. JulianD
- 6D. GuiM
- 18Z. KassaryM
- 1Lucas FrancaG
- 2Diogo CalilaD
- 4P. PachecoD
- 21E. FernandesD
- 5Guilherme RomaoD
- 6P. FerreiraM
- 8J. TavaresM
- 99SorrisoM
- 20T. RibeiroM
- 70Vinicius LopesM
- 9G. PacienciaF
- 12NenecaG
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 3H. SilvaD
- 17VasconcelosM
- 22VitinhoM
- 81S. FofanaM
- 25F. MedeirosF
- 73Leo JacoF
- 11Welinton TorraoF
Form going into Alverca vs Santa Clara
Alverca
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Sporting CP22 August 2026
- D2-2Estrela15 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto9 August 2026
Santa Clara
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Famalicao23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Academico Viseu15 August 2026
- D2-2Nacional10 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alverca vs Santa Clara
- 21 February 2026Alverca 1–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 20 September 2025Santa Clara 2–1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Alverca and Santa Clara
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alverca and Santa Clara drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Alverca at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: V. Semedo 69' for Alverca, Brenner 87' for Santa Clara. On expected goals it finished 0.41–1.41.