Arouca vs Maritimo Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Arouca 2-1 Maritimo.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Arouca, 28% draw, 36% Maritimo — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Arouca at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arouca vs Maritimo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12I. De ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 15J. SanchezD
- 3J. FontanD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 10P. GozalbezM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17I. BarberoF
- 1J. VinarcikG
- 71M. DuarteG
- 5B. PopovicD
- 37M. ClimentD
- 4D. MonteiroD
- 89Pedro SantosM
- 14H. LeeM
- 21M. FloresM
- 9F. MayuluF
- 13A. PastorG
- 2Igor JuliaoD
- 4R. FernandesD
- 44R. CorreiaD
- 23P. HenriqueD
- 6R. AndradeM
- 18V. DanilovicM
- 35B. LimbombeM
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 10M. TejonM
- 17A. ButzkeF
- 1G. TabuacoG
- 30F. VieitesG
- 5NiltonD
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 16F. SilvaM
- 21I. AlaniM
- 66I. AyumaM
- 68N. BatistaM
- 27S. BambaF
Form going into Arouca vs Maritimo
Arouca
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to FC Porto23 August 2026
- W4-0Moreirense16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Guimaraes8 August 2026
Maritimo
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Academico Viseu22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Famalicao16 August 2026
- W1-0Casa Pia8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 20 |
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arouca vs Maritimo
- 8 April 2023Arouca 1–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 23 October 2022Maritimo 1–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 14 February 2022Arouca 0–3 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 13 September 2021Maritimo 2–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 19 March 2017Maritimo 3–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Arouca and Maritimo
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Maritimo
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arouca beat Maritimo 2–1. The goals: M. Tejon 27' for Maritimo, E. van Ee 44' for Arouca, I. Barbero 55' for Arouca. On expected goals it finished 1.65–0.67.