29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC

Arouca vs Maritimo Primeira Liga prediction & result

Arouca
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Arouca 2-1 Maritimo.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Arouca, 28% draw, 36% Maritimo — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Arouca at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arouca96%Draw4%Maritimo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
⚽M. Tejon
44'
Raphael Guzzo
⚽E. van Eeassist: A. Trezza
44'
⚽I. Barberoassist: P. Gozalbez
55'
62'
🔁B. Limbombeout: S. Bamba
🔁I. Barberoout: B. Mansilla
70'
🔁A. Trezzaout: D. Nandin
70'
Dylan Nandín
75'
77'
🔁A. Butzkeout: I. Ayuma
77'
🔁V. Danilovicout: M. Boakye
🔁E. van Eeout: Pedro Santos
79'
🔁P. Gozalbezout: M. Flores
79'
🔁N. Djouahraout: M. Climent
87'
87'
🔁R. Fernandesout: Nilton
Javi Sánchez
90+2'

Match stats — Arouca vs Maritimo

52%Possession48%
17Shots12
7On target4
2Corners3
1.65xG0.67

Goals against chances

Arouca2 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth
Maritimo1 from 0.67 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arouca 4-2-3-1
  • 12I. De ArruabarrenaG
  • 28Tiago EsgaioD
  • 15J. SanchezD
  • 3J. FontanD
  • 18O. LebedenkoD
  • 6E. van EeM
  • 8T. FukuiM
  • 19A. TrezzaM
  • 10P. GozalbezM
  • 7N. DjouahraM
  • 17I. BarberoF
Substitutes
  • 1J. VinarcikG
  • 71M. DuarteG
  • 5B. PopovicD
  • 37M. ClimentD
  • 4D. MonteiroD
  • 89Pedro SantosM
  • 14H. LeeM
  • 21M. FloresM
  • 9F. MayuluF
Coach: Vasco Seabra
Maritimo 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. PastorG
  • 2Igor JuliaoD
  • 4R. FernandesD
  • 44R. CorreiaD
  • 23P. HenriqueD
  • 6R. AndradeM
  • 18V. DanilovicM
  • 35B. LimbombeM
  • 14Raphael GuzzoM
  • 10M. TejonM
  • 17A. ButzkeF
Substitutes
  • 1G. TabuacoG
  • 30F. VieitesG
  • 5NiltonD
  • 22G. SzalaiD
  • 16F. SilvaM
  • 21I. AlaniM
  • 66I. AyumaM
  • 68N. BatistaM
  • 27S. BambaF
Coach: Mitchell van der Gaag

Form going into Arouca vs Maritimo

Arouca

  • L0-2away to FC Porto23 August 2026
  • W4-0Moreirense16 August 2026

Maritimo

  • D2-2Academico Viseu22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Famalicao16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Arouca631285+310
10Maritimo6213711-47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arouca vs Maritimo

  • 29 August 2026Arouca 2–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 8 April 2023Arouca 1–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 23 October 2022Maritimo 1–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 14 February 2022Arouca 0–3 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 13 September 2021Maritimo 2–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 19 March 2017Maritimo 3–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Arouca and Maritimo

Arouca

  • Barbero4 goals

Maritimo

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.