River Plate vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: River Plate 3-1 Independiente Rivadavia.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% River Plate, 28% draw, 33% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
River Plate at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — River Plate vs Independiente Rivadavia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41S. BeltranG
- 29G. MontielD
- 28L. Martinez QuartaD
- 30N. OtamendiD
- 21M. AcunaD
- 15Fausto VeraM
- 50T. AndradaM
- 23T. AlmadaM
- 26T. GalvanM
- 10A. CorreaF
- 9S. DriussiF
- 33E. CenturionG
- 20G. GonzalezD
- 2T. RamirezD
- 3F. OrtegaD
- 13L. RiveroD
- 8M. ArambarriM
- 24J. MezaM
- 43V. LuceroM
- 25L. PereyraF
- 30N. BolcatoG
- 13A. OsellaD
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 2L. CostaD
- 3J. M. ElordiD
- 11G. RiosM
- 5T. BottariM
- 25J. I. Florentin BobadillaM
- 10M. FernandezM
- 43F. SartoriF
- 9A. ArceF
- 21E. F. Gomez RigaG
- 28A. VigoD
- 36E. BonifacioD
- 8L. BuccaM
- 34S. MoreyraM
- 27D. CregoM
- 77L. SequeiraM
- 32K. A. VazquezM
- 7V. RamisF
Form going into River Plate vs Independiente Rivadavia
River Plate
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Banfield30 August 2026
- D2-2Velez Sarsfield23 August 2026
- W2-0Argentinos Juniors16 August 2026
- L0-1away to Tigre8 August 2026
- L0-1Rosario Central2 August 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Racing Club31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Independiente22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba15 August 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto8 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sarmiento Junin3 August 2026
What these results say
- River Plate conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | River Plate | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 26 |
| 7 | Independiente Rivadavia | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: River Plate and Independiente Rivadavia
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- J. Florentín91
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
River Plate beat Independiente Rivadavia 3–1. The model had made a win for River Plate its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: G. Montiel (penalty) 30' for River Plate, T. Galvan 54' for River Plate, A. Arce 68' for Independiente Rivadavia, T. Galvan 80' for River Plate. On expected goals it finished 1.90–1.23.
How the call on River Plate v Independiente Rivadavia has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 28% / 33%: the biggest move is River Plate's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- River Plate win39%▼ −2
- Draw28%=
- Independiente Rivadavia win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.