Lanus vs Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Lanus 1-0 Defensa Y Justicia.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Lanus, 27% draw, 29% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lanus at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lanus vs Defensa Y Justicia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26N. LosadaG
- 33T. GuidaraD
- 24C. IzquierdozD
- 13J. CanaleD
- 6S. MarcichD
- 5F. Pena BiaforeM
- 30A. CardozoM
- 11E. SalvioM
- 8F. N. WatsonM
- 77L. BesozziM
- 20A. WlkF
- 1F. PetroliG
- 4G. PerezD
- 39T. LaplaceM
- 35R. De JesusD
- 3N. MorgantiniD
- 40T. LopezD
- 23R. CarreraM
- 16M. SepulvedaM
- 17A. MedinaM
- 1M. BorgognoG
- 28V. LozaD
- 29D. FernandezD
- 21D. MartinezD
- 3F. RomanD
- 19D. BarbonaM
- 15S. SosaM
- 8C. PerezM
- 17A. HauschF
- 11T. PerrottaF
- 24J. GutierrezF
- 36L. AmadeG
- 16A. PortilloM
- 2S. LuceroD
- 6E. BurdinD
- 30D. DominguezD
- 22M. PorcelM
- 26J. LuccoF
- 45T. MartinezM
- 41R. GagliardiF
Form going into Lanus vs Defensa Y Justicia
Lanus
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Boca Juniors29 August 2026
- D1-1Argentinos Juniors25 August 2026
- L1-3Independiente17 August 2026
- W3-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 August 2026
- L1-2away to Union Santa Fe6 August 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Platense31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Belgrano Cordoba23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 August 2026
- W2-1Newell's Old Boys9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata1 August 2026
What these results say
- Lanus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lanus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lanus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Defensa Y Justicia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Defensa Y Justicia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lanus | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Lanus beat Defensa Y Justicia 1–0. The model had made a win for Lanus its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: C. Izquierdoz 90' for Lanus. On expected goals it finished 1.14–0.74.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.