17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Oldham vs Cheltenham League Two prediction & result

Boundary Park, Oldham
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Oldham 4-1 Cheltenham.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Oldham, 26% draw, 28% Cheltenham — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Oldham at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oldham99%Draw1%Cheltenham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
Shaun McWilliams
⚽Calum Kavanaghassist: Favour fawunmi
19'
24'
Charlie McCann
⚽Jamie Robsonassist: Favour fawunmi
25'
⚽Favour fawunmiassist: Calum Kavanagh
41'
45+1'
⚽Freddie willcox
60'
🔁Shaun McWilliamsout: K. Otchere
🔁Kane drummondout: Mike·Fondop-Talum
70'
75'
🔁George Millerout: Jake Bickerstaff
🔁Favour fawunmiout: Oliver Hammond
76'
⚽Jamie Robsonassist: Oliver Hammond
81'
🔁Tom Pettout: Kai Payne
83'
88'
🔁Jake Evansout: Favour onukwuli

Match stats — Oldham vs Cheltenham

47%Possession53%
18Shots9
5On target4
4Corners5
2.24xG0.95

Goals against chances

Oldham4 from 2.24 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cheltenham1 from 0.95 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Oldham 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. HudsonG
  • 16W. SuttonD
  • 5D. DanielsD
  • 6E. MontheD
  • 3J. RobsonD
  • 8O. NorburnM
  • 7K. Appiah-ForsonM
  • 15K. DrummondM
  • 4T. PettM
  • 17F. FawunmiM
  • 10C. KavanaghF
Substitutes
  • 9M. Fondop-TalumF
  • 27O. HammondM
  • 21J. HawkesM
  • 26Kai PayneM
  • 24L. TempleD
  • 22Wilson WilsonG
  • 2G. Scott-MorrissD
Coach: M. Mellon
Cheltenham 4-2-3-1
  • 23W. StanwayG
  • 17S. McWilliamsD
  • 6J. WilsonD
  • 25P. SweeneyD
  • 21G. NurseD
  • 8C. McCannM
  • 33F. WillcoxM
  • 19J. EvansM
  • 10G. MillerM
  • 26J. ShipleyM
  • 18A. WeimannF
Substitutes
  • 20Favour OnukwuliF
  • 31M. DialloG
  • 11J. BickerstaffF
  • 5R. CundyD
  • 38Jack RobinsonD
  • 9K. OtchereF
  • 36Archie Philip HillM
Coach: S. Cotterill

Form going into Oldham vs Cheltenham

Oldham

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Accrington Stanley10 October 2026
  • L1-4Salford City26 September 2026

Cheltenham

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Salford City10 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Accrington Stanley3 October 2026
  • W2-1Chesterfield26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Oldham154381621-515
9Cheltenham156362326-321

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Oldham vs Cheltenham

  • 17 January 2026Oldham 2–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 20 September 2025Cheltenham 0–3 OldhamLeague Two
  • 26 January 2021Cheltenham 2–0 OldhamLeague Two
  • 3 November 2020Oldham 2–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 4 January 2020Cheltenham 3–0 OldhamLeague Two

Leading scorers: Oldham and Cheltenham

Oldham

GoalsAssists

  • C. Kavanagh54

Cheltenham

GoalsAssists

  • C. McCann91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Oldham beat Cheltenham 4–1. The model had made a win for Oldham its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Calum Kavanagh 19' for Oldham, Jamie Robson 25' for Oldham, Favour fawunmi 41' for Oldham, Freddie willcox 45+1' for Cheltenham, Jamie Robson 81' for Oldham. On expected goals it finished 2.24–0.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Oldham a 14.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.0% after a win, 16.3% after a draw, 18.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.0%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

For Cheltenham the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.0% going in: 7.5% after a win, 11.0% after a draw, 12.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.4%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Oldham v Cheltenham has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 41% / 27% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Oldham's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Oldham win46%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Cheltenham win28%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.