Newport County vs York League Two prediction & result
Final score: Newport County 1-1 York.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Newport County, 26% draw, 42% York — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
York at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newport County vs York
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. WrightG
- 22C. NormanD
- 5L. JenkinsD
- 4K. CameronD
- 16M. JacobD
- 24M. Dibley-DiasM
- 6C. BrennanM
- 21T. NyakuhwaM
- 10H. BigginsM
- 20Y. BambaM
- 9S. GwengweF
- 28K. EteteF
- 7K. EvansM
- 19G. GarnerF
- 23M. Adu-PokuF
- 33S. MacDonaldG
- 34D. SassiD
- 8M. SmithM
- 1Alfie Shane McNallyG
- 2R. FallowfieldD
- 5Z. JohnsonD
- 3M. KitchingD
- 23J. FelixM
- 8A. HuntM
- 28O. BanksM
- 12H. BoyesM
- 7J. GreyM
- 10O. PearceM
- 18J. MalcolmF
- 30A. NewbyM
- 6A. PalmerD
- 16A. ReadM
- 15J. KingD
- 32J. HuntD
- 31G. Sykes-KenworthyG
- 11F. MaguireM
Form going into Newport County vs York
Newport County
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Colchester10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gillingham3 October 2026
- W2-1Grimsby26 September 2026
York
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Northampton10 October 2026
- W3-0Gillingham26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Newport County | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 |
| 4 | York | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newport County vs York
- 16 January 2016York 0–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 5 September 2015Newport County 0–3 YorkLeague Two
- 25 April 2015York 0–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 11 October 2014Newport County 3–1 YorkLeague Two
- 26 April 2014York 1–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Newport County and York
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
York
GoalsAssists
- O. Pearce74
- A. Newby61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Newport County and York drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for York at 42% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ollie Pearce 4' for York, Kion Etete 54' for Newport County. Sent off: jovan malcolm (York) 24'. On expected goals it finished 1.04–1.09.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Newport County a 18.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.3% after a win, 18.3% after a draw, 20.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 18.3%.
For York the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 44.3% going in: 47.8% after a win, 43.1% after a draw, 40.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 43.1%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Newport County v York has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 26% / 42%: the biggest move is Newport County's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Newport County win32%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- York win42%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.