San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Colorado Rapids.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% San Jose Earthquakes, 28% draw, 30% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
San Jose Earthquakes at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. GunnG
- 5D. MunieD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 87Vítor CostaD
- 17Jack JasinskiM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 23E. LöwenM
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 7O. BoudaM
- 11T. WernerM
- 19P. JuddF
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 20N. FernandezM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 3P. MarieD
- 2J. RickettsD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 41N. DefreitasG
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 5Loïc WilliamsD
- 29M. NavarroD
- 13W. Frederick IIM
- 12J. AtencioM
- 93G. MinoungouM
- 7M. WhittakerM
- 10P. AaronsonM
- 32D. PhillipF
- 99J. TravisD
- 77D. YapiF
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 8H. OjediranM
- 21T. Ku-DiPietroM
- 16A. HarrisF
- 24N. CobbD
- 31A. BeaudryG
- 9S. AbuF
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer
- L0-3away to FC Dallas25 October 2026
- D1-1Nashville SC18 October 2026
Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer
- W1-0Vancouver Whitecaps25 October 2026
- D0-0away to Portland Timbers18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 57 | 51 | +6 | 52 |
| 12 | Colorado Rapids | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
- 11 October 2026Colorado Rapids 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2026Colorado Rapids 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesUS Open Cup
- 11 May 2025Colorado Rapids 0–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 12 May 2024Colorado Rapids 2–3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 14 April 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–3 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd172
Colorado Rapids
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 47 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for San Jose Earthquakes at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Reid Roberts 15' for San Jose Earthquakes, Morgan Whittaker 26' for Colorado Rapids, Darren Yapi 73' for Colorado Rapids, Jack Jasinski 83' for San Jose Earthquakes. Sent off: Timo Werner (San Jose Earthquakes) 71', Kosi Thompson (Colorado Rapids) 75'. On expected goals it finished 2.38–1.05.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Colorado Rapids a 83.8% chance to finish in the top nine: 99.4% after a win, 87.2% after a draw, 72.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 87.2%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is San Jose Earthquakes's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- San Jose Earthquakes win42%▼ −4
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Colorado Rapids win30%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.