17 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Sanat Naft vs Aluminium Arak Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Takhti Stadium, Abadan
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sanat Naft 2-1 Aluminium Arak.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Sanat Naft, 28% draw, 44% Aluminium Arak — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aluminium Arak at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sanat Naft97%Draw3%Aluminium Arak0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Taheranassist: K. Zebarjad
17'
K. Zebarjad
39'
46'
🔁S. Shahabbasiout: M. Mousavi
54'
🔁A. Vatandoustout: R. Jabireh
⚽M. Fallah
56'
A. Taheran
60'
61'
🔁M. Mahdaviout: A. Latifi
61'
🔁A. Ghanbariout: S. Sadeghi
M. Karimzadeh
65'
66'
A. Houshmand
67'
🔁A. Amanipourout: E. Khodadadian
🔁T. Rikaniout: M. Baseri
70'
82'
⚽A. Nouri
84'
A. Houshmand
🔁M. Fallahout: S. Mehrabizadeh
90+3'
🔁M. Seifiout: A. Kouliyan
90+8'
🔁K. Zebarjadout: M. Fakhreddini
90+8'

Line-ups

Sanat Naft
  • 1A. Gohari
  • 2M. Aghajanpour
  • 77M. Fallah
  • 33M. Tohidast
  • 12M. Teymouri
  • 6A. Taheran
  • 8K. Zebarjad
  • 21M. Abbasi
  • 10T. Rikani
  • 78M. Karimzadeh
  • 7M. Seifi
Substitutes
  • 20M. Ghobeishavi
  • M. Baseri
  • 4R. Yazdandoost
  • 9R. Rezaei
  • 19A. Kouliyan
  • 22P. Afzali
  • 34M. Fakhreddini
  • 41F. Mirdoraghi
  • 81E. Mohammadi
Aluminium Arak
  • 1M. Khalifeh
  • 22S. Shahabbasi
  • 77R. Zolfipour
  • 4A. Houshmand
  • 13M. Mahdavi
  • 8A. Ghanbari
  • 5A. Nouri
  • 11A. Vatandoust
  • 44S. Jafarikia
  • 99A. Amanipour
  • 27A. Latifi
Substitutes
  • 15M. Mousavi
  • 69R. Jabireh
  • 7A. Sadeghi
  • 21S. Sadeghi
  • E. Khodadadian

Form going into Sanat Naft vs Aluminium Arak

Sanat Naft

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L1-3away to Persepolis FC9 October 2026
  • L1-2Chadormalu SC12 September 2026

Aluminium Arak

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L1-2away to Fajr Sepasi13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Sanat Naft11245615-910
6Aluminium Arak12453129+317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sanat Naft vs Aluminium Arak

  • 23 November 2024Sanat Naft 1–0 Aluminium ArakHazfi Cup
  • 11 May 2024Aluminium Arak 1–1 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 8 December 2023Sanat Naft 1–2 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 27 January 2023Aluminium Arak 3–1 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 19 August 2022Sanat Naft 0–1 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League

The result against the call

Sanat Naft beat Aluminium Arak 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Aluminium Arak at 44% and given a win for Sanat Naft 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Taheran 17' for Sanat Naft, M. Fallah 56' for Sanat Naft, A. Nouri 82' for Aluminium Arak. Sent off: A. Houshmand (Aluminium Arak) 84'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sanat Naft a 84.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 68.2% after a win, 86.8% after a draw, 93.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.2%, 16.2 points lower than before the match.

For Aluminium Arak the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.3% going in: 26.6% after a win, 8.7% after a draw, 4.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.8%, 11.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.