17 October 2026, 21:30 UTC

Aucas vs LDU de Quito Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Referee: Patricio Parrao
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Aucas 1-1 LDU de Quito.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Aucas, 30% draw, 33% LDU de Quito — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aucas at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aucas3%Draw94%LDU de Quito3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mateo Burdisso
8'
⚽B. Oyola
12'
🔁B. Oyolaout: Alexander Bolaños
43'
45+2'
•Michael Estrada
45+4'
⚽Michael Estrada (pen)
45'
🔁Lucas Rodriguezout: Alexander Alvarado
45'
🔁Leonel Quinonezout: Jose Carabali
45'
🔁Janner Corozoout: Elvis Kevin Velasco Chere
Agostino Spina
50'
🔁Alexander Bolañosout: Luis Arroyo
61'
🔁Piero Andrés Guzmán Arroboout: Michael Carcelen
69'
🔁Rafael Monti Azpiazúout: Byron Yardel Carabalí Delgado
69'

Match stats — Aucas vs LDU de Quito

39%Possession61%
9Shots13
4On target3
6Corners8
1.06xG1.95

Goals against chances

Aucas1 from 1.06 xGabout what the chances were worth
LDU de Quito1 from 1.95 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aucas 4-1-4-1
  • 13Hamilton Emanuel Piedra OrdóñezG
  • 37A. ZovaD
  • 4M. BurdissoD
  • 2S. MoralesD
  • 28R. QuiñónezD
  • 6A. SpinaM
  • 30B. OyolaM
  • 21P. GuzmánM
  • 18Andrés David Mena MontenegroM
  • 10A. PreciadoM
  • 9R. Monti AzpiazuF
Substitutes
  • 11A. BolañosF
  • 29Luis Aldair Arroyo CabezaF
  • 7J. AndradeF
  • 31B. CarabalíD
  • 34M. CarcelénM
  • 1I. ChavesG
  • 5ThiagoM
  • 17C. ZambranoF
  • 63A. GarciaD
Coach: N. Araujo
LDU de Quito 3-4-1-2
  • 1G. ValleG
  • 30G. AllalaD
  • 4Ricardo AdeD
  • 33Leonel Enrique Quiñónez PadillaD
  • 57M. WeigandtM
  • 20F. CornejoM
  • 8J. PretellM
  • 23Yerlin QuinonezM
  • 7L. RodríguezM
  • 13J. CorozoF
  • 11M. EstradaF
Substitutes
  • 22Alexander Domínguez CarabalíG
  • 5Sebastían González BaqueroM
  • 3Richard Alexander Mina CaicedoD
  • 27Ruddy MinaM
  • 18Washington Nahir Olvera ZambranoM
  • 31J. RodríguezM
  • 44L. SegoviaD
  • 77K. VelascoF
  • 26I. ZambranoM
Coach: Gustavo Álvarez

Form going into Aucas vs LDU de Quito

Aucas

Liga Pro

  • L1-2away to Independiente del Valle10 October 2026

LDU de Quito

Liga Pro

  • W2-1Barcelona SC11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Aucas36159124042-254
4LDU de Quito36159123832+654

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aucas vs LDU de Quito

  • 26 August 2026LDU de Quito 1–0 AucasCopa Ecuador
  • 17 August 2026Aucas 0–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
  • 23 April 2026LDU de Quito 0–0 AucasLiga Pro
  • 9 August 2025Aucas 1–0 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
  • 18 April 2025LDU de Quito 3–1 AucasLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Aucas and LDU de Quito

Aucas

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.

LDU de Quito

GoalsAssists

  • M. Estrada72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aucas and LDU de Quito drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Aucas at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: B. Oyola 12' for Aucas, Michael Estrada (penalty) 45+4' for LDU de Quito. On expected goals it finished 1.06–1.95.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.