8 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Voith-Arena, Heidenheim
Referee: Robin Braun
Full time2 – 2

Final score: 1. FC Heidenheim 2-2 Hannover 96.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% 1. FC Heidenheim, 25% draw, 31% Hannover 96 — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Heidenheim at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Heidenheim5%Draw91%Hannover 964%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

42'
Franz Roggow
⚽Tim Siersleben
43'
55'
⚽Stefán Teitur Thórdarsonassist: Benjamin Källman
🔁Paul Hennrichout: Christian Conteh
61'
🔁Mikkel Kaufmannout: Alessandro Vogt
62'
63'
⚽Jean Hugonetassist: Marcel Hartel
⚽Budu Zivzivadzeassist: Christian Conteh
66'
69'
🔁Benjamin Källmanout: Mustapha Bundu
🔁Marcel Costlyout: Sirlord Conteh
75'
76'
Marcel Hartel
77'
🔁Waniss Taibiout: Noah Engelbreth
77'
🔁Virgil Ghițăout: Bastian Allgeier
85'
🔁Husseyn Chakrounout: Ime Okon
85'
🔁Franz Roggowout: Mwisho Mhango
🔁Budu Zivzivadzeout: Maximilian Breunig
85'
89'
Sandro Wagner

Match stats — 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96

47%Possession53%
14Shots15
3On target5
7Corners9
1.18xG1.42

Goals against chances

1. FC Heidenheim2 from 1.18 xGmore than the chances were worth
Hannover 962 from 1.42 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Heidenheim 4-3-3
  • 33T. DähneG
  • 2M. BuschD
  • 6P. MainkaD
  • 4T. SierslebenD
  • 27M. HeuleD
  • 8P. HennrichM
  • 3J. SchöppnerM
  • 19J. FöhrenbachM
  • 29M. KaufmannF
  • 11B. ZivzivadzeF
  • 24M. CostlyF
Substitutes
  • 14M. BreunigF
  • 10C. ContehF
  • 31S. ContehF
  • 1Frank FellerG
  • 22O. MhamdiD
  • 16J. NiehuesM
  • 23L. PaqaradaD
  • 18A. VogtF
  • 37T. LeisM
Coach: F. Schmidt
Hannover 96 3-4-2-1
  • 30L. WeinkaufG
  • 5V. GhițăD
  • 3B. TomiakD
  • 4J. HugonetD
  • 8W. TaïbiM
  • 13F. RoggowM
  • 10M. HartelM
  • 27H. MatsudaM
  • 23S. ÞórðarsonM
  • 14H. ChakrounM
  • 9B. KällmanF
Substitutes
  • 7M. BunduF
  • 22Noah EngelbrethM
  • 28Taycan Macid EtcibasiF
  • 1P. LoretzG
  • 21Mwisho MhangoM
  • 20I. OkonD
  • 29K. OudenneM
  • 42Manuel BraunD
  • 17B. AllgeierD
Coach: S. Wagner

Form going into 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96

1. FC Heidenheim

2. Bundesliga

  • L1-2away to Karlsruher SC31 October 2026
  • D1-1Energie Cottbus24 October 2026
  • L1-3away to VfL Wolfsburg17 October 2026
  • D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern9 October 2026

Hannover 96

2. Bundesliga

  • W2-1Dynamo Dresden1 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Eintracht Braunschweig25 October 2026
  • D1-1FC St. Pauli17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to 1. FC Magdeburg10 October 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Heidenheim did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • 1. FC Heidenheim scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 1. FC Heidenheim conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Hannover 96 conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Hannover 96 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
71. FC Heidenheim114431920-116
11Hannover 96113351218-612

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96

  • 14 April 2023Hannover 96 0–3 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 9 October 2022FC Heidenheim 2–1 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
  • 4 February 2022FC Heidenheim 3–1 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
  • 20 August 2021Hannover 96 1–0 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 11 April 2021Hannover 96 1–3 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 12 December 2020FC Heidenheim 1–0 Hannover 962. Bundesliga

The result against the call

1. FC Heidenheim and Hannover 96 drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Heidenheim at 44% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tim Siersleben 43' for 1. FC Heidenheim, Stefán Teitur Thórdarson 55' for Hannover 96, Jean Hugonet 63' for Hannover 96, Budu Zivzivadze 66' for 1. FC Heidenheim. On expected goals it finished 1.18–1.42.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hannover 96 a 8.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 5.9% after a win, 9.1% after a draw, 9.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.1%.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.