Sassuolo vs Lazio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Sassuolo 2-6 Lazio.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Sassuolo, 28% draw, 44% Lazio — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Lazio at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sassuolo vs Lazio
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 80S. TuratiG
- 46S. CinquegranoD
- 26C. OdenthalD
- 15D. Ćaleta-CarD
- 3J. DoigD
- 42K. ThorstvedtM
- 35L. LipaniM
- 50D. BakolaM
- 10D. BerardiF
- 94S. EspositoF
- 45A. LaurientéF
- 25B. DomínguezF
- 6S. WalukiewiczD
- 8A. GhionM
- 21J. IdzesD
- 18N. MatićM
- 49A. MurićG
- 33Rafael ObradorD
- 77N. PieriniF
- 12G. SatalinoG
- 35C. MandasG
- 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
- 37J. ŠutaloD
- 2Diogo LeiteD
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 24K. TaylorM
- 11G. IsaksenF
- 14T. NoslinF
- 10M. ZaccagniF
- 63F. SerraF
- 33Ricardo BordonD
- 22M. CancellieriF
- 32D. CataldiM
- 7F. Dele-BashiruM
- 5D. DoekhiD
- 47D. RenzettiG
- 28A. PrzyborekM
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
Form going into Sassuolo vs Lazio
Sassuolo
Serie A
- L0-2away to Como24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Frosinone16 October 2026
Lazio
Serie A
- W2-1Parma24 October 2026
- W3-0away to Juventus18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lazio vs Sassuolo
Lazio and Sassuolo have met 7 times in the records we hold, Lazio has won 5 of them to Sassuolo's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Lazio won the last one 6–2 on 27 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 5 |
| Sassuolo | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 27 Oct 2026
Serie ASassuolo 2–6 Lazio - 9 Mar 2026
Serie ALazio 2–1 Sassuolo - 14 Sep 2025
Serie ASassuolo 1–0 Lazio - 26 May 2024
Serie ALazio 1–1 Sassuolo - 21 Oct 2023
Serie ASassuolo 0–2 Lazio - 3 May 2023
Serie ALazio 2–0 Sassuolo - 15 Jan 2023
Serie ASassuolo 0–2 Lazio
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Lazio's attack rates 22% above Sassuolo's, and Lazio concede 38% fewer than Sassuolo. That gives Lazio the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Sassuolo and Lazio
Sassuolo
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- T. Noslin44
- G. Isaksen41
- D. Frattesi40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lazio won 6–2 at Sassuolo. The model had made a win for Lazio its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kenneth Taylor 2' for Lazio, Josip Šutalo (own goal) 7' for Sassuolo, Gustav Isaksen 13' for Lazio, Romano Floriani Mussolini 16' for Lazio, Sebastiano Esposito 43' for Sassuolo, Mattia Zaccagni 45+1' for Lazio, Tijjani Noslin 55' for Lazio, Tijjani Noslin 65' for Lazio. Sent off: Kristian Thorstvedt (Sassuolo) 31'. On expected goals it finished 0.79–3.58.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sassuolo a 8.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.5% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 10.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.4%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
For Lazio the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 33.5% going in: 38.3% after a win, 31.2% after a draw, 28.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.3%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sassuolo v Lazio has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 28% / 28% / 44%: the biggest move is Lazio's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Sassuolo win28%▼ −5
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Lazio win44%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.