Atlas vs Club America Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlas 2-5 Club America.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Atlas, 26% draw, 38% Club America — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Club America at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlas vs Club America
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12C. VargasG
- 3J. SánchezD
- 19A. FríasD
- 44J. PurataD
- 16M. ValenzuelaD
- 18E. MontielM
- 15Paulo RamírezM
- 58A. GonzálezM
- 10Luís EstevesM
- 9F. MonzónF
- 8R. MmaeeF
- 6É. ZaldívarM
- 27V. RÃosM
- 22A. SánchezG
- 23S. HernándezM
- 28M. CapassoD
- 13G. AguirreD
- 17J. LozanoD
- 203J. MartínF
- 26A. RochaM
- 1L. MalagónG
- 5K. ÁlvarezD
- 14S. BuenoD
- 15S. RamosD
- 24F. RossanoD
- 3I. ReyesM
- 28É. SánchezM
- 10A. ZendejasM
- 8Carlos ÁlvarezM
- 7B. RodríguezM
- 93M. BorjaF
- 13A. CervantesM
- 30R. CotaG
- 20A. GutiérrezM
- 2E. LaraD
- 9H. MartínF
- 22Ó. PereaF
- 12I. ViolanteF
- 32M. VázquezD
- 217IcaroM
Form going into Atlas vs Club America
Atlas
Liga MX
- W2-0away to Necaxa17 October 2026
Club America
All competitions we cover
- W5-3away to Leon18 October 2026
- D1-1Monterrey11 October 2026
- W4-2away to Necaxa28 September 2026
- D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
What these results say
- Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club America conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Club America.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Club America
Atlas and Club America have met 7 times in the records we hold, Club America has won 6 of them to Atlas's 1.
The record
Club America won the last one 5–2 on 22 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 22 |
| Club America | 6 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 30 goals, an average of 4.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Oct 2026
Liga MXAtlas 2–5 Club America - 26 Apr 2026
Liga MXClub America 0–1 Atlas - 25 Aug 2025
Liga MXAtlas 2–4 Club America - 16 Mar 2025
Liga MXAtlas 1–3 Club America - 18 Sep 2024
Liga MXClub America 3–0 Atlas - 10 Aug 2024
Leagues CupClub America 2–1 Atlas - 3 Mar 2024
Liga MXAtlas 1–5 Club America
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Club America's attack rates 34% above Atlas', and Club America concede 12% fewer than Atlas. That gives Club America the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 0.77 | 1.48 |
| Club America | 1.03 | 1.30 |
Leading scorers: Atlas and Club America
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- F. Monzón51
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín113
- M. Borja60
- B. Rodríguez53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club America won 5–2 at Atlas. The model had made a win for Club America its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Miguel Borja 26' for Club America, Erick Sánchez 28' for Club America, Brian Rodríguez 58' for Club America, Álex Zendejas 63' for Club America, Luís André Leite Esteves (penalty) 73' for Atlas, Ryan Mmaee 78' for Atlas, Kevin Alvarez 79' for Club America. On expected goals it finished 2.52–2.46.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atlas a 83.7% chance to finish in the top eight: 95.8% after a win, 83.8% after a draw, 74.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.0%, 9.7 points lower than before the match.
For Club America the question was the chance to finish top of the Apertura, 65.8% going in: 79.4% after a win, 65.1% after a draw, 51.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.4%, 13.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atlas v Club America has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 34% / 26% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 26% / 38%: the biggest move is Atlas's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Atlas win36%▲ +2
- Draw26%=
- Club America win38%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.