Deportivo Pereira vs Chico Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Pereira 2-0 Chico.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Deportivo Pereira, 31% draw, 27% Chico — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Deportivo Pereira at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Pereira vs Chico
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Yimy GómezG
- 20Jordy MonroyD
- 2Sebastián UrreaD
- 15Santiago AguilarD
- 25Fabio DelgadoD
- 21Walmer PachecoM
- 14Ederson MorenoM
- 7Anderson PlataM
- 11Jhon LargachaM
- 24Miguel PalaciosM
- 18Marco PérezF
- 13Yuber QuiñonesF
- 5Jorge BermúdezM
- 29Manuel Alejandro Diaz HernandezF
- 23Tobias BovoneD
- 8Felipe MosqueraF
- 33Samuel AtehortuaG
- 16Eber MorenoD
- 6Danilo OrtizD
- 26Jhon MontoyaM
- 1David AgudeloG
- 24Cristián MosqueraD
- 5Jhonier AlomíaD
- 4Jefferson MenaD
- 14Cristian BlancoD
- 17Estiven SarriaM
- 8Sebastian SalazarM
- 6Juan DiazM
- 16Santiago MeraM
- 9Isaac CamargoF
- 21Jacobo PimentelF
- 20Sebastián ViverosM
- 11Delio RamírezM
- 10Yesus CabreraM
- 22Alejandro MayaF
- 2Daniel PolancoD
- 12Branndon ZapataG
Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs Chico
Deportivo Pereira
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Junior14 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Cali10 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
- L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026
- D0-0Internacional de Bogota26 September 2026
Chico
All competitions we cover
- L1-4Atletico Nacional17 October 2026
- L0-1Cucuta11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportes Tolima3 October 2026
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pereira did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Chico failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 17 |
| 15 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pereira vs Chico
- 2 April 2026Chico 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 22 September 2025Chico 1–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 6 April 2025Deportivo Pereira 1–1 ChicoPrimera A
- 7 August 2024Deportivo Pereira 1–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 5 February 2024Chico 1–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 5 August 2023Deportivo Pereira 1–1 ChicoPrimera A
The result against the call
Deportivo Pereira beat Chico 2–0. The model had made a win for Deportivo Pereira its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jhon Largacha 40' for Deportivo Pereira, Manuel Alejandro Diaz Hernandez 86' for Deportivo Pereira. Sent off: Jhonier Alomía (Chico) 80', Yesus Cabrera (Chico) 88'. On expected goals it finished 1.41–0.83.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Pereira a 55.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 37.0% after a win, 65.4% after a draw, 77.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.0%, 18.2 points lower than before the match.
For Chico the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 38.7% going in: 13.8% after a win, 35.3% after a draw, 54.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.0%, 15.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Deportivo Pereira v Chico has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 37% / 32% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 42% / 31% / 27%: the biggest move is Deportivo Pereira's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Deportivo Pereira win42%▲ +5
- Draw31%▼ −1
- Chico win27%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.