Independiente vs San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente 1-1 San Lorenzo.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Independiente, 31% draw, 26% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente at 43% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente vs San Lorenzo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33R. ReyG
- 29L. GodoyD
- 13J. FedorcoD
- 35J. ArrayagoD
- 22F. ZabalaD
- 16M. Perez CurciM
- 23I. MarconeM
- 8M. MezaM
- 7S. MontielF
- 6C. AvilaF
- 19M. AbaldoF
- 77S. MeleG
- 4S. AriasD
- 2F. CalderonD
- 20F. CruzM
- 32D. MartinezM
- 14L. MillanM
- 24J. PalaisM
- 9I. MoralesF
- 30T. ParmoM
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 16G. CorujoD
- 19E. AmorD
- 24N. TripichioM
- 8M. InsaurraldeM
- 5I. PerruzziM
- 3T. Rodriguez PaganoM
- 38F. FariasF
- 9A. CuelloF
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 20F. AltamiranoG
- 6M. De RitisD
- 42F. LorenzonD
- 30N. AriasD
- 35A. CordobaD
- 32E. HerreraD
- 39U. OjedaM
- 13J. RattalinoM
- 14A. LadstatterF
Form going into Independiente vs San Lorenzo
Independiente
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
- L0-3Gimnasia Mendoza30 August 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Lanus17 August 2026
San Lorenzo
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto21 August 2026
- W1-0Union Santa Fe15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Independiente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs San Lorenzo
- 13 September 2026Independiente 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 May 2026San Lorenzo 1–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 September 2025Independiente 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 March 2025San Lorenzo 1–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 August 2024Independiente 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 April 2023San Lorenzo 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Independiente and San Lorenzo
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
San Lorenzo
- R. Auzmendi6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.