13 September 2026, 17:45 UTC

Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Eva Peron, Junin
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sarmiento Junin 1-1 Belgrano Cordoba.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Sarmiento Junin, 29% draw, 27% Belgrano Cordoba — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sarmiento Junin at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarmiento Junin97%Draw3%Belgrano Cordoba0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Juan Manuel Insaurralde
14'
Mauricio Martínez
17'
•Cristian Zabala
29'
⚽Junior Marabel (pen)
33'
⚽J. Marabel
33'
39'
Nicolás Fernández
Santiago Salle
53'
🔁J. Herreraout: Diego Churin
57'
64'
🔁F. Riccaout: A. Sporle
64'
🔁S. Longoout: L. Passerini
🔁J. Contreraout: G. Arturia
68'
72'
🔁R. Hernandesout: F. Gonzalez
Diego Churin
79'
🔁S. Salleout: T. Santamaria
80'
🔁J. Marabelout: E. Gimenez
80'
🔁J. Mavillaout: G. Gonzalez
80'
84'
🔁N. Fernandezout: L. Gutierrez
90+5'
•Alcides Benítez
90'
⚽L. Passerini (pen)

Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba

26%Possession74%
9Shots17
4On target7
3Corners7
1.53xG2.18

Goals against chances

Sarmiento Junin1 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth
Belgrano Cordoba1 from 2.18 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
  • 12T. AyalaG
  • 8S. SalleD
  • 44R. OrihuelaD
  • 2J. InsaurraldeD
  • 77N. PasquiniD
  • 19J. ContreraM
  • 15C. ZabalaM
  • 16M. MartinezM
  • 21J. MavillaM
  • 27J. MarabelF
  • 24J. HerreraF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ArboledaG
  • 20U. GimenezD
  • 6G. ArturiaD
  • 33G. DiazD
  • 29T. SantamariaD
  • 23E. GimenezM
  • 10J. RenteriaM
  • 17A. NadruzM
  • 5M. GarciaM
Coach: Facundo Sava
Belgrano Cordoba 4-2-3-1
  • 25T. CardozoG
  • 26A. J. Benitez CabreraD
  • 14L. MoralesD
  • 17L. LopezD
  • 16F. RiccaD
  • 20F. VazquezM
  • 5S. LongoM
  • 24E. RigoniM
  • 10L. ZelarayanM
  • 8R. Hernandes
  • 22N. FernandezF
Substitutes
  • 23M. VicentiniG
  • 3A. SporleD
  • 2A. MaldonadoD
  • 4A. Rosso
  • 59J. FlandesD
  • 37L. GutierrezF
  • 19S. Gatti
  • 9L. PasseriniF
  • 11F. GonzalezM
Coach: Ricardo Zielinski

Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba

Sarmiento Junin

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
  • W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
  • W2-0Huracan16 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman8 August 2026

Belgrano Cordoba

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Huracan4 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman30 August 2026
  • L1-2Defensa Y Justicia23 August 2026
  • W2-0Independiente Rivadavia15 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Banfield10 August 2026

What these results say

  • Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sarmiento Junin won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Belgrano Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Belgrano Cordoba had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sarmiento Junin166372324-121
6Belgrano Cordoba166551715+223

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba

  • 3 May 2026Belgrano Cordoba 4–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 August 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 February 2024Belgrano Cordoba 4–1 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 25 September 2023Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Belgrano CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 3 April 2023Belgrano Cordoba 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba record →

Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Belgrano Cordoba

Sarmiento Junin

GoalsAssists

  • J. Marabel145

Belgrano Cordoba

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sarmiento Junin and Belgrano Cordoba drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sarmiento Junin at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: J. Marabel 33' for Sarmiento Junin, L. Passerini (penalty) 90' for Belgrano Cordoba. On expected goals it finished 1.53–2.18.

How the call on Sarmiento Junin v Belgrano Cordoba has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Sarmiento Junin's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Sarmiento Junin win44%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Belgrano Cordoba win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.