13 September 2026, 17:45 UTC

Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Eva Peron, Junin
Full time1 1

Final score: Sarmiento Junin 1-1 Belgrano Cordoba.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Sarmiento Junin, 29% draw, 27% Belgrano Cordoba — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sarmiento Junin at 44% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarmiento Junin97%Draw3%Belgrano Cordoba0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Juan Manuel Insaurralde
14'
Mauricio Martínez
17'
Cristian Zabala
29'
Junior Marabel (pen)
33'
J. Marabel
33'
39'
Nicolás Fernández
Santiago Salle
53'
🔁J. Herreraout: Diego Churin
57'
64'
🔁F. Riccaout: A. Sporle
64'
🔁S. Longoout: L. Passerini
🔁J. Contreraout: G. Arturia
68'
72'
🔁R. Hernandesout: F. Gonzalez
Diego Churin
79'
🔁S. Salleout: T. Santamaria
80'
🔁J. Marabelout: E. Gimenez
80'
🔁J. Mavillaout: G. Gonzalez
80'
84'
🔁N. Fernandezout: L. Gutierrez
90+5'
Alcides Benítez
90'
L. Passerini (pen)

Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba

26%Possession74%
9Shots17
4On target7
3Corners7
1.53xG2.18

Goals against chances

Sarmiento Junin1 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth
Belgrano Cordoba1 from 2.18 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
  • 12T. AyalaG
  • 8S. SalleD
  • 44R. OrihuelaD
  • 2J. InsaurraldeD
  • 77N. PasquiniD
  • 19J. ContreraM
  • 15C. ZabalaM
  • 16M. MartinezM
  • 21J. MavillaM
  • 27J. MarabelF
  • 24J. HerreraF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ArboledaG
  • 20U. GimenezD
  • 6G. ArturiaD
  • 33G. DiazD
  • 29T. SantamariaD
  • 23E. GimenezM
  • 10J. RenteriaM
  • 17A. NadruzM
  • 5M. GarciaM
Coach: Facundo Sava
Belgrano Cordoba 4-2-3-1
  • 25T. CardozoG
  • 26A. J. Benitez CabreraD
  • 14L. MoralesD
  • 17L. LopezD
  • 16F. RiccaD
  • 20F. VazquezM
  • 5S. LongoM
  • 24E. RigoniM
  • 10L. ZelarayanM
  • 8R. Hernandes
  • 22N. FernandezF
Substitutes
  • 23M. VicentiniG
  • 3A. SporleD
  • 2A. MaldonadoD
  • 4A. Rosso
  • 59J. FlandesD
  • 37L. GutierrezF
  • 19S. Gatti
  • 9L. PasseriniF
  • 11F. GonzalezM
Coach: Ricardo Zielinski

Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba

Sarmiento Junin

  • W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
  • W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
  • W2-0Huracan16 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman8 August 2026

Belgrano Cordoba

  • D1-1Huracan4 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman30 August 2026
  • L1-2Defensa Y Justicia23 August 2026
  • W2-0Independiente Rivadavia15 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Banfield10 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba

  • 13 September 2026Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 3 May 2026Belgrano Cordoba 4–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 August 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 February 2024Belgrano Cordoba 4–1 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 25 September 2023Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Belgrano CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 3 April 2023Belgrano Cordoba 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Belgrano Cordoba

Sarmiento Junin

  • J. Marabel12 goals4 assists

Belgrano Cordoba

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.