Tigre vs Rosario Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Tigre 0-1 Rosario Central.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Tigre, 28% draw, 30% Rosario Central — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Tigre at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tigre vs Rosario Central
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12F. T. ZenobioG
- 4V. MorenoD
- 20A. BarrionuevoD
- 32J. VillalbaD
- 3N. BanegasD
- 10J. SaraleguiM
- 27S. GonzalezM
- 8M. GarayM
- 22S. LopezM
- 33M. MendezF
- 29I. RussoF
- 26L. MoralesG
- 17G. SotoD
- 23G. RequenaD
- 24F. AlvarezD
- 40L. MinnitiD
- 5B. LeyesM
- 21S. MedinaM
- 11T. SerragoM
- 19A. OviedoF
- 23C. LedesmaG
- 32E. CoronelD
- 46I. OvandoD
- 13G. AvilaD
- 3A. SandezD
- 5F. IbarraM
- 20V. PizarroM
- 88A. RodriguezM
- 11A. Di MariaM
- 8J. CampazM
- 22E. CopettiF
- 1A. WernerG
- 24J. GimenezD
- 33A. SotoD
- 15F. Mallo BlancoD
- 2S. ZarachoD
- 42E. VeronD
- 31F. NavarroM
- 28P. FernandezM
- 10F. CerviM
Form going into Tigre vs Rosario Central
Tigre
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Gimnasia La Plata5 September 2026
- D0-0Barracas Central1 September 2026
- W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Aldosivi15 August 2026
- W1-0River Plate8 August 2026
Rosario Central
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Newell's Old Boys6 September 2026
- L1-2Gimnasia La Plata29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Talleres Cordoba25 August 2026
- W1-0away to Barracas Central16 August 2026
- W2-1Aldosivi7 August 2026
What these results say
- Rosario Central scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rosario Central conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Rosario Central.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tigre | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 19 |
| 1 | Rosario Central | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tigre vs Rosario Central
- 3 May 2026Rosario Central 1–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 May 2024Rosario Central 1–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 February 2023Tigre 2–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 August 2022Tigre 3–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 April 2022Tigre 2–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Tigre and Rosario Central
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
Rosario Central
GoalsAssists
- Á. Di María115
- G. Ávila73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rosario Central won 1–0 at Tigre. The model had leaned towards a win for Tigre at 42% and given a win for Rosario Central 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: A. Di Maria (penalty) 60' for Rosario Central. Sent off: Emanuel Coronel (Rosario Central) 76'. On expected goals it finished 1.37–2.02.
How the call on Tigre v Rosario Central has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Rosario Central's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Tigre win42%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Rosario Central win30%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.