Tigre vs Rosario Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Tigre 0-1 Rosario Central.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Tigre, 28% draw, 30% Rosario Central — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigre at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tigre vs Rosario Central
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12F. T. ZenobioG
- 4V. MorenoD
- 20A. BarrionuevoD
- 32J. VillalbaD
- 3N. BanegasD
- 10J. SaraleguiM
- 27S. GonzalezM
- 8M. GarayM
- 22S. LopezM
- 33M. MendezF
- 29I. RussoF
- 26L. MoralesG
- 17G. SotoD
- 23G. RequenaD
- 24F. AlvarezD
- 40L. MinnitiD
- 5B. LeyesM
- 21S. MedinaM
- 11T. SerragoM
- 19A. OviedoF
- 23C. LedesmaG
- 32E. CoronelD
- 46I. OvandoD
- 13G. AvilaD
- 3A. SandezD
- 5F. IbarraM
- 20V. PizarroM
- 88A. RodriguezM
- 11A. Di MariaM
- 8J. CampazM
- 22E. CopettiF
- 1A. WernerG
- 24J. GimenezD
- 33A. SotoD
- 15F. Mallo BlancoD
- 2S. ZarachoD
- 42E. VeronD
- 31F. NavarroM
- 28P. FernandezM
- 10F. CerviM
Form going into Tigre vs Rosario Central
Tigre
- L1-2away to Gimnasia La Plata5 September 2026
- D0-0Barracas Central1 September 2026
- W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Aldosivi15 August 2026
- W1-0River Plate8 August 2026
Rosario Central
- D1-1Newell's Old Boys6 September 2026
- L1-2Gimnasia La Plata29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Talleres Cordoba25 August 2026
- W1-0away to Barracas Central16 August 2026
- W2-1Aldosivi7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Tigre vs Rosario Central
- 13 September 2026Tigre 0–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 May 2026Rosario Central 1–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 May 2024Rosario Central 1–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 February 2023Tigre 2–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 August 2022Tigre 3–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 April 2022Tigre 2–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Tigre and Rosario Central
Tigre
- I. Russo7 goals3 assists
- D. Romero7 goals2 assists
Rosario Central
- Á. Di María8 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.