5 September 2026, 13:30 UTC

SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg Bundesliga prediction & result

Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
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Final score: SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC Freiburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% SC Paderborn 07, 33% draw, 29% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 2.63, 3.03 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts SC Paderborn 07 at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SC Paderborn 070%Draw3%SC Freiburg97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
⚽Maximilian Eggestein
Laurin Curda
38'
43'
Yuito Suzuki
🔁Rayan Philippeout: Steffen Tigges
45'
Jano Ter-Horst
48'
56'
Philipp Lienhart
59'
Yannick Engelhardt
74'
🔁Jan-Niklas Besteout: Lukas Kübler
74'
🔁Derry Lionel Scherhantout: Vincenzo Grifo
🔁Laurin Ulrichout: Oliver Batista Meier
74'
82'
🔁Yannick Engelhardtout: Berkay Yilmaz
82'
🔁Yuito Suzukiout: Keisuke Goto
🔁Jano Ter-Horstout: Jonah Sticker
82'
🔁Marvin Pieringerout: Stefano Marino
82'
🔁Mattes Hansenout: Niklas Mohr
89'
Tjark Scheller
90+3'

Match stats — SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg

59%Possession41%
14Shots16
3On target5
5Corners4

Line-ups

SC Paderborn 07 3-5-2
  • 15N. NollG
  • 21J. ter HorstD
  • 25T. SchellerD
  • 22M. HansenD
  • 17L. CurdaM
  • 28L. UlrichM
  • 5S. CastañedaM
  • 40G. VidovićM
  • 23R. ObermairM
  • 18M. PieringerF
  • 9R. PhilippeF
Substitutes
  • 6T. BaackM
  • 7O. Batista MeierM
  • 29C. LippmannD
  • 30S. MarinoF
  • 24N. MohrM
  • 1M. SchubertG
  • 3Jonah Benedict StickerM
  • 27S. TiggesF
  • 8L. ĐurićM
Coach: R. Kettemann
SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BackhausG
  • 29P. TreuD
  • 28M. GinterD
  • 3P. LienhartD
  • 33J. MakengoD
  • 8M. EggesteinM
  • 16Y. EngelhardtM
  • 19J. BesteM
  • 14Y. SuzukiM
  • 7D. ScherhantM
  • 31I. MatanovićF
Substitutes
  • 37M. RosenfelderD
  • 43I. OgbusD
  • 21F. MüllerG
  • 17L. KüblerD
  • 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
  • 30C. GünterD
  • 32V. GrifoM
  • 42K. GotoF
  • 27Berkay YilmazD
Coach: J. Schuster

Form going into SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg

SC Paderborn 07

  • D0-0away to FSV Mainz 0529 August 2026

SC Freiburg

  • W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15SC Paderborn 07301204-41
1SC Freiburg3300101+99

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg

  • 5 September 2026SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 1 November 2023SC Freiburg 1–3 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
  • 25 January 2020SC Freiburg 0–2 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
  • 24 August 2019SC Paderborn 07 1–3 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 29 April 2016SC Paderborn 07 1–2 SC Freiburg2. Bundesliga
  • 22 November 2015SC Freiburg 4–1 SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: SC Paderborn 07 and SC Freiburg

SC Paderborn 07

No league goals yet this season.

SC Freiburg

  • I. Matanović3 goals1 assists
  • Y. Suzuki3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.