Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Bayer Leverkusen, 27% draw, 27% Union Berlin — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
Line-ups
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 30I. MazaM
- 10M. TillmanM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 14P. SchickF
- 8R. AndrichM
- 5L. BadéD
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 19M. DiabyF
- 7J. HofmannM
- 35Christian KofaneF
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 15T. OermannD
- 1F. RønnowG
- 18J. JuranovićD
- 2F. UduokhaiD
- 4Z. Van Den BoschD
- 15T. RotheD
- 6A. KemleinM
- 20M. AebischerM
- 9Livan BurcuM
- 8R. KhediraM
- 27M. LjubiÄiÄF
- 29E. Latte LathF
- 21T. SkarkeM
- 24R. SkovM
- 28C. TrimmelD
- 13A. SchäferM
- 31M. RaabG
- 14L. QuerfeldD
- 17D. KöhnD
- 11Jeong Woo-YeongM
- 19J. HabererM
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
Union Berlin
All competitions we cover
- D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
- 21 February 2026Union Berlin 1–0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 4 October 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 12 April 2025Bayer Leverkusen 0–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 30 November 2024Union Berlin 1–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 6 April 2024Union Berlin 0–1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick82
- I. Maza33
Union Berlin
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bayer Leverkusen beat Union Berlin 4–0. The model had made a win for Bayer Leverkusen its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ignacio Ezequiel Agustín Fernández Carballo 1' for Bayer Leverkusen, Facundo Medina 28' for Bayer Leverkusen, Patrik Schick 48' for Bayer Leverkusen, Ibrahim Maza 66' for Bayer Leverkusen.