Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Bayer Leverkusen, 27% draw, 27% Union Berlin — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 46% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
Line-ups
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 30I. MazaM
- 10M. TillmanM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 14P. SchickF
- 8R. AndrichM
- 5L. BadéD
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 19M. DiabyF
- 7J. HofmannM
- 35Christian KofaneF
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 15T. OermannD
- 1F. RønnowG
- 18J. JuranovićD
- 2F. UduokhaiD
- 4Z. Van Den BoschD
- 15T. RotheD
- 6A. KemleinM
- 20M. AebischerM
- 9Livan BurcuM
- 8R. KhediraM
- 27M. LjubiÄiÄF
- 29E. Latte LathF
- 21T. SkarkeM
- 24R. SkovM
- 28C. TrimmelD
- 13A. SchäferM
- 31M. RaabG
- 14L. QuerfeldD
- 17D. KöhnD
- 11Jeong Woo-YeongM
- 19J. HabererM
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
Union Berlin
- D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
- 5 September 2026Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 21 February 2026Union Berlin 1–0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 4 October 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 12 April 2025Bayer Leverkusen 0–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 30 November 2024Union Berlin 1–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 6 April 2024Union Berlin 0–1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen
- P. Schick3 goals1 assists
- Christian Kofane2 goals
Union Berlin
- T. Skarke2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.