5 September 2026, 13:30 UTC

Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Bundesliga prediction & result

Weserstadion, Bremen
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Werder Bremen 3-1 RB Leipzig.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Werder Bremen, 29% draw, 39% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

RB Leipzig at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Werder Bremen99%Draw1%RB Leipzig0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Eren Dinkciassist: Iván San José Cantalejo
4'
Iván San José Cantalejo
23'
24'
•Christopher Nkunku
63'
🔁Johan Bakayokoout: Tidiam Gomis
🔁Arthur Augusto De Matos Soaresout: Mick Schmetgens
67'
🔁Eren Dinkciout: Paul Erevbenagie
67'
⚽Niclas Füllkrugassist: Marco Grüll
68'
🔁Niclas Füllkrugout: Cédric Itten
74'
75'
🔁Neil El Aynaouiout: Marc Guiu
⚽Marco Grüll
80'
🔁Youri Regeerout: Dariusz Stalmach
83'
🔁Iván San José Cantalejoout: Salim Amani Musah
83'
84'
🔁Christopher Nkunkuout: Andrija Maksimović
84'
🔁Antonio Nusaout: Samba Konaté
90+5'
⚽Ridle Bakuassist: Andrija Maksimović

Match stats — Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig

29%Possession71%
12Shots19
7On target5
2Corners7

Line-ups

Werder Bremen 4-1-4-1
  • 1K. HeinG
  • 13ArthurD
  • 5A. PieperD
  • 32M. FriedlD
  • 2O. DemanD
  • 44Y. RegeerM
  • 18E. DinkçiM
  • 20Chuky San JoséM
  • 15L. ReisM
  • 17M. GrüllM
  • 10N. FüllkrugF
Substitutes
  • 38P. ErevbenagieF
  • 26C. IttenF
  • 29Salim Amani MusahF
  • 16M. N'DiayeD
  • 30A. SchlagerG
  • 33Mick SchmetgensD
  • 23Dariusz StalmachM
  • 4N. StarkD
  • 3O. WójcikD
Coach: D. Thioune
RB Leipzig 4-3-3
  • 26M. VandevoordtG
  • 17R. BakuD
  • 4W. OrbánD
  • 3M. EstèveD
  • 22D. RaumD
  • 21N. El AynaouiM
  • 13N. SeiwaldM
  • 6E. BanzuziM
  • 11J. BakayokoF
  • 28C. NkunkuF
  • 7A. NusaF
Substitutes
  • 2A. KonéD
  • 45S. KonateF
  • 16L. KlostermannD
  • 1Ø. NylandG
  • 39B. HenrichsD
  • 9Marc GuiuF
  • 27T. GomisF
  • 35Max FinkgräfeD
  • 30A. MaksimovićM
Coach: M. Demichelis

Form going into Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig

Werder Bremen

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026

RB Leipzig

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Borussia Mönchengladbach29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Werder Bremen94321715+215
4RB Leipzig96032713+1418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig

  • 4 April 2026Werder Bremen 1–2 RB LeipzigBundesliga
  • 23 November 2025RB Leipzig 2–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • 10 May 2025Werder Bremen 0–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
  • 12 January 2025RB Leipzig 4–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • 11 May 2024RB Leipzig 1–1 Werder BremenBundesliga

The full Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig record →

Leading scorers: Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig

Werder Bremen

GoalsAssists

  • N. Füllkrug90

RB Leipzig

GoalsAssists

  • C. Nkunku52
  • Rômulo50
  • A. Nusa47

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Werder Bremen beat RB Leipzig 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for RB Leipzig at 39% and given a win for Werder Bremen 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Eren Dinkci 4' for Werder Bremen, Niclas Füllkrug 68' for Werder Bremen, Marco Grüll 80' for Werder Bremen, Ridle Baku 90+5' for RB Leipzig.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.