Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Werder Bremen 3-1 RB Leipzig.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Werder Bremen, 29% draw, 39% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Leipzig at 39% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
Line-ups
- 1K. HeinG
- 13ArthurD
- 5A. PieperD
- 32M. FriedlD
- 2O. DemanD
- 44Y. RegeerM
- 18E. DinkçiM
- 20Chuky San JoséM
- 15L. ReisM
- 17M. GrüllM
- 10N. FüllkrugF
- 38P. ErevbenagieF
- 26C. IttenF
- 29Salim Amani MusahF
- 16M. N'DiayeD
- 30A. SchlagerG
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 4N. StarkD
- 3O. WójcikD
- 26M. VandevoordtG
- 17R. BakuD
- 4W. OrbánD
- 3M. EstèveD
- 22D. RaumD
- 21N. El AynaouiM
- 13N. SeiwaldM
- 6E. BanzuziM
- 11J. BakayokoF
- 28C. NkunkuF
- 7A. NusaF
- 2A. KonéD
- 45S. KonateF
- 16L. KlostermannD
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 39B. HenrichsD
- 9Marc GuiuF
- 27T. GomisF
- 35Max FinkgräfeD
- 30A. MaksimoviÄM
Form going into Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
- L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026
RB Leipzig
- W3-0Borussia Mönchengladbach29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
- 5 September 2026Werder Bremen 3–1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 4 April 2026Werder Bremen 1–2 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 23 November 2025RB Leipzig 2–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 10 May 2025Werder Bremen 0–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 12 January 2025RB Leipzig 4–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 11 May 2024RB Leipzig 1–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
Leading scorers: Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
- N. Füllkrug2 goals
RB Leipzig
- A. Nusa2 goals2 assists
- R. Baku2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.