28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Holstein Kiel vs 1899 Hoffenheim DFB Pokal prediction & result

Holstein-Stadion, Kiel
Referee: Bastian Dankert
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Holstein Kiel 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Holstein Kiel, 27% draw, 48% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1899 Hoffenheim at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Adam Hložek
22'
•Tim Lemperle
⚽Adrian Kapralikassist: Hiroki Sekine
23'
33'
🔁Valentin Gendreyout: Vladimír Coufal
41'
Adam Hložek
Ivan Nekić
42'
45+7'
Wouter Burger
45'
🔁Wouter Burgerout: Adam Daghim
45'
🔁Tim Lemperleout: Fisnik Asllani
64'
🔁Adam Hložekout: Bambasé Conté
🔁Ikem Ugohout: Guillermo Balzi
65'
68'
Leon Avdullahu
Tim Walter
74'
76'
Oliver Baumann
🔁Jonas Torrissen Therkelsenout: Gyan de Regt
90'
🔁Kasper Davidsenout: Giorgi Kvilitaia
90'
95'
🔁Bambasé Contéout: Mats Rots
🔁Leon Parduziout: John Tolkin
103'
105+2'
Koki Machida
Adrian Kapralik
106'
🔁Adrian Kapralikout: Faride·Alidou
115'
Giorgi Kvilitaia
117'
⚽Giorgi Kvilitaia (pen)
121'
122'
⚽Andrej Kramarić (pen)
⚽Ivan Nekić (pen)
123'
123'
⚽Fisnik Asllani (pen)
⚽Guillermo Balzi (pen)
124'
125'
⚽Leon Avdullahu (pen)
⚽Gyan de Regt (pen)
126'
127'
⚽Alexander Prass (pen)
⚽Phil Harres (pen)
127'
128'
⚽Mats Rots (pen)

Match stats — Holstein Kiel vs 1899 Hoffenheim

44%Possession56%
16Shots13
5On target4
6Corners10
1.11xG0.86

Goals against chances

Holstein Kiel1 from 1.11 xGabout what the chances were worth
1899 Hoffenheim1 from 0.86 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Holstein Kiel 4-1-4-1
  • 41Lio RothenhagenG
  • 32H. SekineD
  • 5N. MadsenD
  • 13I. NekićD
  • 40Leon ParduziD
  • 28J. MeffertM
  • 20A. KaprálikM
  • 27I. UgohM
  • 15K. DavidsenM
  • 10J. TherkelsenM
  • 19P. HarresF
Substitutes
  • 17F. AlidouF
  • 8G. BalziM
  • 11G. de RegtF
  • 9G. KvilitaiaF
  • 44Mark Richter MonserratF
  • 47J. TolkinD
  • 1T. WeinerG
  • 43T. WieseM
  • 26D. ZecD
Coach: T. Walter
1899 Hoffenheim 4-2-3-1
  • 37L. PhilippG
  • 15V. GendreyD
  • 2R. HranáčD
  • 28K. MachidaD
  • 13BernardoD
  • 7L. AvdullahuM
  • 18W. BurgerM
  • 27A. KramarićM
  • 10A. HložekM
  • 22A. PrassM
  • 19T. LemperleF
Substitutes
  • 39M. RotsD
  • 32Cajetan Benjamin LenzM
  • 5O. KabakD
  • 14A. DaghimF
  • 34V. CoufalD
  • 20B. ContéM
  • 1O. BaumannG
  • 11F. AsllaniF
  • 29Natnael AbrahaD
Coach: C. Ilzer

Form going into Holstein Kiel vs 1899 Hoffenheim

Holstein Kiel

2. Bundesliga

  • W3-0Dynamo Dresden25 October 2026
  • D0-0Hertha BSC16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Eintracht Braunschweig9 October 2026

1899 Hoffenheim

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Bayer Leverkusen25 October 2026
  • W3-0Lyon22 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Borussia Mönchengladbach18 October 2026
  • L2-3Beşiktaş15 October 2026
  • L2-3Hamburger SV10 October 2026

What these results say

  • 1899 Hoffenheim scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs 1899 Hoffenheim

  • 29 July 20261899 Hoffenheim 3–1 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 January 2025Holstein Kiel 1–3 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
  • 24 August 20241899 Hoffenheim 3–2 Holstein KielBundesliga
  • 26 October 20211899 Hoffenheim 5–1 Holstein KielDFB Pokal

Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and 1899 Hoffenheim

Holstein Kiel

GoalsAssists

  • P. Harres53

1899 Hoffenheim

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Holstein Kiel and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for 1899 Hoffenheim at 48% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.11–0.86.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.