28 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg DFB Pokal prediction & result

Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
Referee: Soren Storks
Full time3 – 2

Final score: SC Freiburg 3-2 VfL Wolfsburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% SC Freiburg, 18% draw, 14% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 1.47, 5.56 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

SC Freiburg at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SC Freiburg8%Draw89%VfL Wolfsburg3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Igor Matanovićassist: Christian Günter
6'
8'
⚽Kento Shiogaiassist: Timon Wellenreuther
Yuito Suzuki
36'
🔁Philipp Treuout: Lukas Kübler
39'
43'
⚽Kento Shiogaiassist: Muhammed Damar
•Lukas Kübler
55'
55'
Saël Kumbedi Nseke
57'
Alexander Bernhardsson
Maximilian Eggestein
60'
63'
🔁Alexander Bernhardssonout: Fabian Reese
68'
Kento Shiogai
🔁Maximilian Rosenfelderout: Philipp Lienhart
68'
🔁Yuito Suzukiout: Keisuke Goto
68'
68'
🔁Kento Shiogaiout: Alessio Besio
⚽Keisuke Gotoassist: Vincenzo Grifo
75'
81'
🔁Elvis Rexhbecajout: Bence Dárdai
81'
🔁Maximilian Arnoldout: Yannick Gerhardt
🔁Cyriaque Iriéout: Jan-Niklas Beste
85'
⚽Keisuke Gotoassist: Philipp Lienhart
90+2'

Match stats — SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg

61%Possession39%
17Shots6
3On target2
7Corners2
1.72xG1.48

Goals against chances

SC Freiburg3 from 1.72 xGmore than the chances were worth
VfL Wolfsburg2 from 1.48 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
  • 21F. MüllerG
  • 29P. TreuD
  • 28M. GinterD
  • 37M. RosenfelderD
  • 30C. GünterD
  • 8M. EggesteinM
  • 16Y. EngelhardtM
  • 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéM
  • 14Y. SuzukiM
  • 32V. GrifoM
  • 31I. MatanovićF
Substitutes
  • 1M. BackhausG
  • 19J. BesteM
  • 42K. GotoF
  • 9L. HölerF
  • 5A. JungD
  • 17L. KüblerD
  • 3P. LienhartD
  • 6P. OsterhageM
  • 20R. YamamotoM
Coach: J. Schuster
VfL Wolfsburg 4-4-2
  • 1T. WellenreutherG
  • 26S. KumbediD
  • 6H. WahlD
  • 33CleitonD
  • 21J. MæhleD
  • 37E. RexhbeçajM
  • 27M. ArnoldM
  • 5Vinicius SouzaM
  • 20M. DamarM
  • 17A. BernhardssonF
  • 7K. ShiogaiF
Substitutes
  • 23A. BesioF
  • 8Bence DárdaiM
  • 2K. FischerD
  • 31Y. GerhardtM
  • 19R. GlatzelF
  • 11F. ReeseF
  • 30J. ZielińskiG
  • 18J. AdjeteyD
  • 22M. AngelyD
Coach: Tobias Strobl

Form going into SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg

SC Freiburg

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3Bayern München25 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Monaco22 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Bayer Leverkusen18 October 2026
  • W3-2FK Jablonec15 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026

VfL Wolfsburg

2. Bundesliga

  • D1-1away to VfL Bochum23 October 2026
  • W3-11. FC Heidenheim17 October 2026
  • D4-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg10 October 2026

What these results say

  • SC Freiburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for SC Freiburg had three goals or more.
  • SC Freiburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg

  • 3 May 2026SC Freiburg 1–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 20 December 2025VfL Wolfsburg 3–4 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 26 April 2025VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 13 December 2024SC Freiburg 3–2 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 27 April 2024SC Freiburg 1–2 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 9 December 2023VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga

Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg

SC Freiburg

No leading scorers listed yet.

VfL Wolfsburg

GoalsAssists

  • F. Reese57
  • R. Glatzel51
  • A. Bernhardsson43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

SC Freiburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 3–2. The model had made a win for SC Freiburg its most likely outcome, at 68%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Igor Matanović 6' for SC Freiburg, Kento Shiogai 8' for VfL Wolfsburg, Kento Shiogai 43' for VfL Wolfsburg, Keisuke Goto 75' for SC Freiburg, Keisuke Goto 90+2' for SC Freiburg. On expected goals it finished 1.72–1.48.

How the call on SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 63% / 22% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 68% / 18% / 14%: the biggest move is SC Freiburg's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. SC Freiburg win68%▲ +5
  2. Draw18%▼ −4
  3. VfL Wolfsburg win14%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.