Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Hamburger SV 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Hamburger SV, 27% draw, 34% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Hamburger SV at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 43S. NandjaD
- 33S. BornauwD
- 17W. OmariD
- 7Z. El OuahdiM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 6A. Sambi LokongaM
- 28M. MuheimM
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 27P. DakaF
- 11A. GrønbækF
- 48J. Bissi MouelleD
- 37L. LemkeD
- 9T. MoffiF
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
- 38Alexander Røssing-LelesiitF
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 12S. TangvikG
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 33D. BatzG
- 6K. ItakuraD
- 16P. SanderD
- 2F. ChiarodiaD
- 29J. ScallyM
- 47Z. UnoM
- 10F. NeuhausM
- 26L. UllrichM
- 25R. HackM
- 36W. MohyaM
- 18S. MachinoF
- 17J. CastropM
- 4K. DiksD
- 20D. HeroldD
- 9F. HonoratM
- 22Y. KonoplyaD
- 3I. LidbergF
- 34M. NguefackM
- 23J. OlschowskyG
- 7K. StögerM
Form going into Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
- L1-3away to Eintracht Frankfurt1 November 2026
- L0-1away to SC Paderborn 0724 October 2026
- W1-0VfB Stuttgart17 October 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim10 October 2026
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0731 October 2026
- W3-2away to VfB Stuttgart23 October 2026
- L1-21899 Hoffenheim18 October 2026
- L1-2away to 1. FC Köln11 October 2026
What these results say
- Hamburger SV scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hamburger SV conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 17 January 2026Hamburger SV 0–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 24 August 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 12 May 2018Hamburger SV 2–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 15 December 2017Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 12 March 2017Hamburger SV 2–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 1 March 2017Hamburger SV 1–2 Borussia MönchengladbachDFB Pokal
The result against the call
Hamburger SV beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1. The model had made a win for Hamburger SV its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Miro Muheim 11' for Hamburger SV, Robin Hack 44' for Borussia Mönchengladbach, Shafiq Nandja 59' for Hamburger SV, Albert Grönbaek 70' for Hamburger SV. Sent off: Ko Itakura (Borussia Mönchengladbach) 49'. On expected goals it finished 2.37–2.47.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hamburger SV a 25.2% chance to finish in the bottom two: 18.1% after a win, 27.6% after a draw, 31.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.1%, 7.1 points lower than before the match.
For Borussia Mönchengladbach the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 45.5% going in: 37.2% after a win, 46.6% after a draw, 51.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.7%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 27% / 34%: the biggest move is Hamburger SV's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Hamburger SV win39%▼ −4
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win34%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.