8 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy Premier League prediction & result

Slavutych-Arena, Zaporizhzhia
Referee: Mikola Balakin
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Zorya Luhansk 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Zorya Luhansk, 30% draw, 32% LNZ Cherkasy — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zorya Luhansk at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zorya Luhansk0%Draw4%LNZ Cherkasy96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Papa Ndiaga Yade (pen)
Oleksandr Saputin
7'
Maksym Boyko
44'
🔁sallieu bahout: Ivan Nesterenko
45'
50'
⚽Papa Ndiaga Yadeassist: Denys Kuzyk
53'
🔁Roman Didykout: Yegor Tverdokhlib
🔁Kyrylo Dryshlyukout: Dejan Popara
58'
🔁Maksym Boykoout: Jakov Basic
58'
Igor Gorbach
62'
⚽Jakov Basicassist: Domagoj jelavic
64'
Dejan Popara
67'
🔁Artem Machelyukout: Vasyl Kravets
77'
78'
🔁Gennadiy Pasichout: Korede Yemi Adedoyin
🔁Domagoj jelavicout: Vladlen Yurchenko
80'
84'
🔁Yakubu adamout: Talles Brener De Paula
85'
Korede Yemi Adedoyin
87'
Talles Brener De Paula
87'
Vitalii Ponomarev

Match stats — Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy

58%Possession42%
7Shots12
3On target6
2Corners7

Line-ups

Zorya Luhansk 4-4-2
  • 1O. SaputinG
  • 44I. PerdutaD
  • 55JordanD
  • 77B. KushnirenkoD
  • 39Artem MachelyukD
  • 88S. BahM
  • 8K. DryshlyukM
  • 18M. BoykoM
  • 27D. JelavićM
  • 28P. BudkivskyiF
  • 11I. GorbachF
Substitutes
  • 30I. NesterenkoM
  • 7G. RodriguesF
  • 5A. JanjićD
  • 4G. EskinjaD
  • 3V. KravetsD
  • 21J. BašićM
  • 6D. PoparaM
  • 80V. YurchenkoM
  • 14A. GlushchenkoM
Coach: V. Skripnik
LNZ Cherkasy 4-1-4-1
  • 1D. LedviiG
  • 93V. RomanD
  • 92B. SlyubykD
  • 34N. MuravskyiD
  • 14O. DrambaevD
  • 29R. DidykM
  • 17D. KuzykM
  • 16A. RyabovM
  • 8A. YakubuM
  • 11H. PasichM
  • 37P. YadeF
Substitutes
  • 90M. AssinorF
  • 99K. AdedoyinF
  • 9E. TverdokhlibM
  • 30TallesM
  • 77T. CaraF
  • 4A. DajkoD
  • 75A. KitelaD
  • 12O. PalamarchukG
  • 72K. SamoylenkoG
Coach: Vitaliy Ponomaryov

Form going into Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy

Zorya Luhansk

Premier League

  • W1-0Epitsentr Dunayivtsi2 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Shakhtar Donetsk24 October 2026
  • W2-1Chornomorets17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Livyi Bereh12 October 2026

LNZ Cherkasy

Premier League

  • D0-0away to Livyi Bereh24 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Kryvbas KR18 October 2026
  • W2-1Kudrivka11 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Shakhtar Donetsk20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Zorya Luhansk went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Zorya Luhansk won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Zorya Luhansk scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for LNZ Cherkasy had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Zorya Luhansk125341415-118
6LNZ Cherkasy115331210+218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy

  • 13 December 2025LNZ Cherkasy 2–0 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
  • 2 August 2025Zorya Luhansk 0–0 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
  • 4 May 2025LNZ Cherkasy 1–1 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
  • 4 November 2024Zorya Luhansk 1–2 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
  • 19 May 2024LNZ Cherkasy 2–1 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
  • 12 November 2023Zorya Luhansk 1–2 LNZ CherkasyPremier League

Leading scorers: Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy

Zorya Luhansk

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

LNZ Cherkasy

GoalsAssists

  • P. Yade40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

LNZ Cherkasy won 2–1 at Zorya Luhansk. The model had leaned towards a win for Zorya Luhansk at 38% and given a win for LNZ Cherkasy 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Papa Ndiaga Yade (penalty) 7' for LNZ Cherkasy, Papa Ndiaga Yade 50' for LNZ Cherkasy, Jakov Basic 64' for Zorya Luhansk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zorya Luhansk a 10.5% chance to finish in the top four: 13.7% after a win, 8.5% after a draw, 6.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.3%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

For LNZ Cherkasy the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 12.1% going in: 16.0% after a win, 11.8% after a draw, 8.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.0%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zorya Luhansk v LNZ Cherkasy has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is LNZ Cherkasy's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Zorya Luhansk win38%▲ +1
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. LNZ Cherkasy win32%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.