8 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Zenit vs FC Rostov Premier League prediction & result

Gazprom Arena, Saint Petersburg
Referee: Stanislav Matveev
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Zenit 2-2 FC Rostov.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Zenit, 24% draw, 17% FC Rostov — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zenit at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Viktor Melekhin
⚽Douglas Santosassist: Maksim Glushenkov
15'
53'
⚽Kevin Andrade (OG)
⚽Luiz Henriqueassist: Artem Karpukas
58'
🔁Aleksandr Sobolevout: Igor Diveev
63'
🔁Gustavo Mantuanout: Wendel
63'
69'
🔁Timur Suleymanovout: Ivan Komarov
Maksim Glushenkov
71'
72'
Danila Prokhin
Wílmar Barrios
76'
83'
⚽Ivan Komarovassist: Andrey Langovich
🔁 Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santosout: Felipe Augusto
87'
🔁Wílmar Barriosout: Jhon Jhon
87'
90+1'
🔁Konstantin Kuchaevout: Daniil Shantaliy

Match stats — Zenit vs FC Rostov

57%Possession43%
13Shots9
5On target3
3Corners0
1xG0.38

Goals against chances

Zenit2 from 1.00 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Rostov2 from 0.38 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zenit 4-2-3-1
  • 57B. MoskvichevG
  • 31Gustavo MantuanD
  • 33NinoD
  • 25K. AndradeD
  • 3Douglas SantosD
  • 5W. BarriosM
  • 93A. KarpukasM
  • 11Luiz HenriqueM
  • 10M. GlushenkovM
  • 20Pedro HenriqueM
  • 7A. SobolevF
Substitutes
  • 28N. AlipD
  • 38Amir MusaevM
  • 66R. VegaD
  • 51V. ShilovF
  • 8WendelM
  • 16D. AdamovG
  • 78I. DiveevD
  • 9Felipe AugustoF
  • 14Jhon JhonM
Coach: S. Semak
FC Rostov 4-3-3
  • 84A. PetrovG
  • 4V. MelekhinD
  • 3O. SakoD
  • 40Ygor NogueiraD
  • 87A. LangovichD
  • 8A. MironovM
  • 27D. ProkhinM
  • 18K. KuchaevM
  • 7RonaldoF
  • 99T. SuleymanovF
  • 6O. OlusegunF
Substitutes
  • 78D. ChistyakovD
  • 34D. GolikovG
  • 26D. KhlusevichD
  • 10I. KomarovM
  • 5Y. MikhaylovM
  • 16M. MukhinM
  • 22D. SemenchukD
  • 91Anton ShamoninF
  • 21D. ShantaliyM
Coach: D. Kirichenko

Form going into Zenit vs FC Rostov

Zenit

Premier League

  • W3-0away to Krylia Sovetov2 November 2026
  • W2-0Dinamo Makhachkala25 October 2026
  • W3-2Akhmat18 October 2026
  • W3-2away to FC Krasnodar10 October 2026

FC Rostov

Premier League

  • W3-0away to Dinamo Makhachkala1 November 2026
  • W2-0Lokomotiv25 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Baltika18 October 2026
  • W1-0Akron9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Zenit won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Zenit scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Zenit had three goals or more.
  • FC Rostov went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • FC Rostov kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Rostov won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Zenit1410133215+1731
6FC Rostov145451819-119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zenit vs FC Rostov

  • 17 May 2026FC Rostov 0–1 ZenitPremier League
  • 20 July 2025Zenit 2–1 FC RostovPremier League
  • 18 May 2025FC Rostov 0–1 ZenitPremier League
  • 16 April 2025Zenit 2–0 FC RostovCup
  • 12 March 2025FC Rostov 0–1 ZenitCup
  • 7 February 2025FC Rostov 1–2 ZenitFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Zenit and FC Rostov

Zenit

GoalsAssists

  • M. Glushenkov105
  • A. Sobolev102

FC Rostov

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zenit and FC Rostov drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Zenit at 59% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Douglas Santos 15' for Zenit, Kevin Andrade (own goal) 53' for FC Rostov, Luiz Henrique 58' for Zenit, Ivan Komarov 83' for FC Rostov. On expected goals it finished 1.00–0.38.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zenit a 53.4% chance to finish top of the regular season: 57.6% after a win, 48.0% after a draw, 40.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 48.0%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.

For FC Rostov the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 3.6% going in: 8.1% after a win, 3.5% after a draw, 2.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.5%.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zenit v FC Rostov has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 63% / 22% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 59% / 24% / 17%: the biggest move is Zenit's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Zenit win59%▼ −4
  2. Draw24%▲ +2
  3. FC Rostov win17%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.