Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon Super League prediction & result
Final score: Shandong Luneng 3-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Before kick-off the model made it 81% Shandong Luneng, 12% draw, 7% Qingdao Jonoon — fair odds of 1.23, 8.33 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shandong Luneng at 81% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon
Line-ups
- 1Yu JinyongG
- 33Zhunyi GaoD
- 23Pedro ÁlvaroD
- 11Yang LiuD
- 28Maiwulang MijitiM
- 35Zhengyu HuangM
- 8Guilherme MadrugaM
- 29Chen PuM
- 10Valeri QazaishviliF
- 9CryzanF
- 19ZecaF
- 2Yang RuiqiD
- 7Wenneng XieM
- 38Memet ImranM
- 17Raphaël MerkiesF
- 15Songchen ShiD
- 36Qiwei LiuG
- 32Qihang SunG
- 3Peng XiaoD
- 5Zheng ZhengD
- 28Pengfei MuG
- 16Hailong LiD
- 4Yangyang JinD
- 23Long SongD
- 29Suda LiD
- 7Yaw YeboahM
- 31Senwen LuoM
- 6Malcom EdjoumaM
- 34Yonghao JinM
- 19Song WenjieF
- 8Chuangyi LinF
- 17Qiao WangD
- 14Zheng'ao SunD
- 9Xinyu LiuF
- 33Liu JiashenD
- 20Ruicong GongD
- 1Jun LiuG
- 43Mewlan JapparG
- 39Sirong LiD
- 24Ngan Cheuk PanM
Form going into Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon
Shandong Luneng
- W2-1Tianjin Teda9 August 2026
Qingdao Jonoon
- L0-1Shanghai Shenhua8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 37 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon
- 26 April 2026Qingdao Jonoon 4–1 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 20 September 2025Qingdao Jonoon 2–2 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 1 May 2025Shandong Luneng 1–1 Qingdao JonoonSuper League
- 13 July 2024Shandong Luneng 1–1 Qingdao JonoonSuper League
- 5 April 2024Qingdao Jonoon 0–1 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 15 September 2023Shandong Luneng 4–2 Qingdao JonoonSuper League
Leading scorers: Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon
Shandong Luneng
- Cryzan16 goals6 assists
- Zeca9 goals4 assists
Qingdao Jonoon
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.