Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng Super League prediction & result
Final score: Shanghai Shenhua 2-3 Shandong Luneng.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Shanghai Shenhua, 25% draw, 22% Shandong Luneng — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Shanghai Shenhua at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Xue QinghaoG
- 13W. ManafaD
- 6Li SongyiD
- 5Zhu ChenjieD
- 27Chan ShinichiD
- 19L. AsueM
- 17Gao TianyiM
- 15Wu XiM
- 30Xie PengfeiM
- 9Rafael RataoF
- 11Saulo MineiroF
- 24Ma ZhenG
- 39D. SunG
- 16Yang ZexiangD
- 26Yang ShuaiD
- 25Zhu YueD
- 2Wang ShilongD
- 3Jin ShunkaiD
- 38Wu QipengD
- 21Xu HaoyangM
- 1Yu JinyongG
- 2Yang RuiqiD
- 23P. AlvaroD
- 11Liu YangD
- 28Mijit MewlanM
- 34Yin JiaxiM
- 38Memet ImranM
- 29Chen PuM
- 9CryzanF
- 19ZecaF
- 10V. QazaishviliF
- 32Sun QihangG
- 36Liu QiweiG
- 35Huang ZhengyuD
- 5Zheng ZhengD
- 33Gao ZhunyiD
- 3Peng XiaoD
- 15Shi SongchenD
- 22Y. LiM
- 37Chen ZeshiM
Form going into Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng
Shanghai Shenhua
All competitions we cover
- W5-4away to Chengdu Better City22 August 2026
- L0-3Beijing Guoan18 August 2026
- W4-1Henan Jianye15 August 2026
- W1-0away to Qingdao Jonoon8 August 2026
Shandong Luneng
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Qingdao Youth Island22 August 2026
- W3-1Qingdao Jonoon14 August 2026
- W2-1Tianjin Teda9 August 2026
What these results say
- Shanghai Shenhua won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Shanghai Shenhua scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Shanghai Shenhua conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shanghai Shenhua | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 67 | 50 | +17 | 40 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 60 | 49 | +11 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng
Shanghai Shenhua
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Ratão191
Shandong Luneng
GoalsAssists
- Cryzan209
- V. Qazaishvili1010
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Shandong Luneng won 3–2 at Shanghai Shenhua. The model had leaned towards a win for Shanghai Shenhua at 53% and given a win for Shandong Luneng 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Mijit Mewlan 1' for Shandong Luneng, Rafael Ratao 41' for Shanghai Shenhua, L. Asue 45' for Shanghai Shenhua, Cryzan (penalty) 79' for Shandong Luneng, R. Merkies 83' for Shandong Luneng. On expected goals it finished 1.65–2.28.