28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

AC Milan vs Venezia Serie A prediction & result

Milan
Full time2 – 0

Final score: AC Milan 2-0 Venezia.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% AC Milan, 19% draw, 19% Venezia — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AC Milan at 62% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Joel Schingtienne
45+3'
🔁B. Franjicout: R. Halhal
48'
Kike Pérez
54'
Ridgeciano Haps
🔁R. Loftus-Cheekout: A. Saelemaekers
59'
🔁A. Cisseout: A. Rabiot
59'
65'
🔁T. Basicout: S. Sohm
66'
🔁R. Hapsout: T. Correia
⚽G. Ramosassist: A. Saelemaekers
69'
Strahinja Pavlović
71'
🔁L. Modricout: A. Jashari
74'
80'
🔁J. Yeboahout: L. Lauberbach
80'
🔁K. Perezout: A. Rrahmani
🔁D. Bartesaghiout: P. Estupinan
87'
🔁M. Gilaout: M. Gabbia
87'
⚽R. Halhal (OG)
89'

Match stats — AC Milan vs Venezia

58%Possession42%
16Shots9
5On target2
2Corners3
2.13xG0.82

Goals against chances

AC Milan2 from 2.13 xGabout what the chances were worth
Venezia0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AC Milan 3-4-2-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 34M. GilaD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 31S. PavlovicD
  • 21S. ChukwuezeM
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 14L. ModricM
  • 33D. BartesaghiM
  • 8R. Loftus-CheekF
  • 70A. CisseF
  • 9G. RamosF
Substitutes
  • 1P. TerraccianoG
  • 96L. TorrianiG
  • 2P. EstupinanD
  • 46M. GabbiaD
  • 13S. DiawaraD
  • 56A. SaelemaekersF
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
  • 22D. MoreiraF
  • 12A. RabiotM
Coach: Ruben Amorim
Venezia 3-5-2
  • 1F. StankovicG
  • 3J. SchingtienneD
  • 17A. Bella-KotchapD
  • 4B. FranjicD
  • 18A. HainautM
  • 71K. PerezM
  • 6G. BusioM
  • 26T. BasicM
  • 5R. HapsM
  • 10J. YeboahF
  • 45A. AdamsF
Substitutes
  • 23M. GrandiG
  • 96L. MontipoG
  • 14T. CorreiaD
  • 25R. HalhalD
  • 20R. SagradoD
  • 95A. GomesD
  • 21T. J. HelgasonM
  • 30M. DagassoM
  • 19S. SohmM
Coach: Giovanni Stroppa

Form going into AC Milan vs Venezia

AC Milan

  • W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026

Venezia

  • L0-2Lecce23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6AC Milan422074+38
20Venezia4004411-70

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Venezia

  • 28 August 2026AC Milan 2–0 VeneziaSerie A
  • 27 April 2025Venezia 0–2 AC MilanSerie A
  • 14 September 2024AC Milan 4–0 VeneziaSerie A
  • 9 January 2022Venezia 0–3 AC MilanSerie A
  • 22 September 2021AC Milan 2–0 VeneziaSerie A

Leading scorers: AC Milan and Venezia

AC Milan

  • A. Cissè2 goals

Venezia

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.