Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sigma Olomouc 3-1 Pardubice.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Sigma Olomouc, 25% draw, 32% Pardubice — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sigma Olomouc at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 91Jan KoutnýG
- 2Abdoulaye SyllaD
- 33Matúš MalýD
- 3Louis LurvinkD
- 70Abubakar GhaliM
- 88Péter BaráthM
- 7Michal BeranM
- 29Anton EkerothM
- 39Dominik JanošekF
- 10Václav SejkF
- 24David TkáčF
- 14Marko SoldoM
- 26Stéphane NoumbissieD
- 17John Paul DembeF
- 22Matěj HadašD
- 19Daniel BaratF
- 98Matúš HruškaG
- 20Dario GrgićM
- 8Jiří SpáčilM
- 6Jáchym ŠípM
- 46Vladimir NeumanG
- 43Jason NoslinD
- 44Simon BammensD
- 12Jan TrédlD
- 15Emmanuel GodwinM
- 6Marek IchaM
- 7Dominique SimonM
- 40Tobias BoledovicM
- 19Michal HlavatýF
- 17Václav DrchalF
- 35Victor SamuelF
- 9Daniel SmékalF
- 25Ryan MahutaD
- 99KahuanF
- 11Jiri ZimaM
- 77Robi SaarmaM
- 1Jáchym ŠerákG
- 92Bohdan SlyubykD
- 27Martin ReilD
- 21Mouhamed Tidjane TraoréD
Form going into Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice
Sigma Olomouc
- W2-1away to Slovácko15 August 2026
Pardubice
- D1-1Mlada Boleslav15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sigma Olomouc | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 16 |
| 13 | Pardubice | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice
- 23 August 2026Sigma Olomouc 3–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 12 April 2026Pardubice 2–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 9 November 2025Sigma Olomouc 2–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 15 February 2025Sigma Olomouc 4–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 4 December 2024Pardubice 2–2 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 30 March 2024Sigma Olomouc 0–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice
Sigma Olomouc
- V. Sejk3 goals2 assists
- A. Ghali3 goals1 assists
- P. Baráth3 goals1 assists
Pardubice
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.