23 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Club Brugge KV vs Cercle Brugge Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Jan Breydel Stadion, Brugge
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Club Brugge KV 1-0 Cercle Brugge.

Before kick-off the model made it 76% Club Brugge KV, 13% draw, 11% Cercle Brugge — fair odds of 1.32, 7.69 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Club Brugge KV at 76% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Club Brugge KV96%Draw4%Cercle Brugge0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽N. Tresoldiassist: C. Forbs
37'
64'
🔁G. Magneeout: T. Adaramola
🔁M. Diakhonout: F. Lemarechal
70'
🔁H. Vetlesenout: J. Virgili
70'
71'
•Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
76'
🔁D. Vanzeirout: K. Kouassi
77'
🔁S. Ngouraout: L. Michal
80'
Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
87'
🔁V. Konateout: Erick Nunes
87'
🔁L. Mondeleout: L. Agyekum
🔁N. Tresoldiout: R. Vermant
89'

Match stats — Club Brugge KV vs Cercle Brugge

80%Possession20%
15Shots11
4On target4
9Corners4
1.83xG0.76

Goals against chances

Club Brugge KV1 from 1.83 xGless than the chances were worth
Cercle Brugge0 from 0.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Club Brugge KV 4-2-3-1
  • 1Y. SommerG
  • 64K. SabbeD
  • 3Lee Han-BeomD
  • 44B. MecheleD
  • 65J. SeysD
  • 8F. PottsM
  • 20H. VanakenM
  • 9C. ForbsM
  • 10H. VetlesenM
  • 67M. DiakhonM
  • 7N. TresoldiF
Substitutes
  • 29N. JackersG
  • 41H. SiquetD
  • 58J. SpileersD
  • 16C. TsawaM
  • 85T. N. Koren
  • 80F. LemarechalM
  • 17R. VermantF
  • 77A. VasovicF
  • 11J. VirgiliF
Coach: Ivan Leko
Cercle Brugge 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. CouckeG
  • 2I. DiakiteD
  • 66C. RavychD
  • 24G. KondoD
  • 15G. MagneeM
  • 42L. MondeleM
  • 19I. DiabyM
  • 12V. KonateM
  • 13D. VanzeirF
  • 71V. MartensF
  • 9S. NgouraF
Substitutes
  • 84B. LangenbickG
  • 45T. AdaramolaD
  • 5E. KakouD
  • 33R. CaicedoD
  • 10L. AmaniM
  • 8Erick NunesM
  • 6L. AgyekumM
  • 41K. KouassiF
  • 22L. MichalF
Coach: Lars Friis

Form going into Club Brugge KV vs Cercle Brugge

Club Brugge KV

  • W3-0away to OH Leuven15 August 2026

Cercle Brugge

  • D3-3St. Truiden14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Club Brugge KV6501123+915
15Cercle Brugge6033611-53

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Club Brugge KV vs Cercle Brugge

  • 23 August 2026Club Brugge KV 1–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
  • 15 February 2026Cercle Brugge 1–2 Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro League
  • 9 August 2025Club Brugge KV 2–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
  • 9 March 2025Cercle Brugge 1–3 Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro League
  • 1 September 2024Club Brugge KV 3–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
  • 26 May 2024Club Brugge KV 0–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Club Brugge KV and Cercle Brugge

Club Brugge KV

  • N. Tresoldi3 goals
  • H. Vetlesen3 goals

Cercle Brugge

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.