Sivasspor vs Pendikspor 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Sivasspor 4-1 Pendikspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Sivasspor, 30% draw, 30% Pendikspor — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sivasspor at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sivasspor vs Pendikspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16Arda ErdusunG
- 26M. YıldırımD
- 22O. ErdoğanD
- 4M. ÇelikD
- 58U. ÇiftçiD
- 66Oguzhan AksoyM
- 20M. MohammedM
- 30E. CeesayM
- 28S. KavrazlıM
- 27V. EthemiM
- 9R. ManajF
- 1G. BakırbaşG
- 8C. CharisisM
- 99Yilmaz CinF
- 17C. DuoduF
- 19E. GökayF
- 11B. KapacakM
- 77Y. KefkirD
- 34T. TuzlacikD
- 23C. ÇelikM
- 97U. YuvakuranG
- 22K. KalafatD
- 2T. İnceD
- 5B. SülüngözD
- 17S. AbifadeD
- 88D. HreljaM
- 41M. ÖzdemirM
- 14H. YeşilM
- 60B. KaradenizM
- 27Ismaila MangaF
- 34ThuramF
- 7E. BaşsanM
- 61O. ÃakıroÄluF
- 20Y. SönmezM
- 6V. SoldoD
- 28E. PekdemirM
- 30E. KoyuncuG
- 99M. KipritF
- 23E. GökçeD
- 66F. DoğanD
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Sivasspor | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
| 16 | Pendikspor | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sivasspor vs Pendikspor
- 1 February 2026Sivasspor 0–0 Pendikspor1. Lig
- 31 August 2025Pendikspor 2–1 Sivasspor1. Lig
- 25 February 2024Sivasspor 4–1 PendiksporSüper Lig
- 7 October 2023Pendikspor 2–3 SivassporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Sivasspor and Pendikspor
Sivasspor
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj102
Pendikspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sivasspor beat Pendikspor 4–1. The model had made a win for Sivasspor its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Rey Manaj 21' for Sivasspor, Rey Manaj 55' for Sivasspor, Valon Ethemi 63' for Sivasspor, Salih Kavrazlı 67' for Sivasspor, Y. Sönmez 87' for Pendikspor. Sent off: Samuel Abifade (Pendikspor) 57', Kerem Kalafat (Pendikspor) 69'. On expected goals it finished 2.22–0.59.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sivasspor a 16.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.0% after a win, 16.8% after a draw, 19.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.0%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.
For Pendikspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.6% going in: 4.6% after a win, 8.3% after a draw, 10.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.7%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sivasspor v Pendikspor has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is Sivasspor's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sivasspor win40%▲ +2
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Pendikspor win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.