Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Vanspor FK 0-2 Bandırmaspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Vanspor FK, 31% draw, 41% Bandırmaspor — fair odds of 3.57, 3.23 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Bandırmaspor at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. UysalG
- 11M. ManişD
- 13N. OularéD
- 5S. OsmanoğluD
- 2K. SevenD
- 41M. ÖzcanM
- 19H. ÇiftçiM
- 7I. AlhaftM
- 10O. KökçüM
- 15T. YenneM
- 9Álvaro de OliveiraF
- 30R. ŽivkovićF
- 61F. GençD
- 22A. DamluG
- 65M. BingölD
- 27J. BardhiM
- 77C. HanalpD
- 17İlkan SeverF
- 58Ö. YiğiterM
- 25F. ÖzhanF
- 16A. AlkanG
- 77H. BilgiçD
- 14Y. KocatürkD
- 34Enes AydınD
- 6Lucas LimaD
- 23K. DonertasM
- 92R. MulumbaM
- 20E. ÇinemreM
- 17Emirhan AyhanF
- 90Recep Yalın DilekF
- 11T. KehindeF
- 27Dame SeckF
- 86B. BekaroğluD
- 99F. BekleviçG
- 3A. BilerD
- 7M. GençM
- 10M. GümüşkayaM
- 8D. LiçoM
- 19Yasin MidilicD
- 22A. ÜlgenD
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vanspor FK | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 | Bandırmaspor | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor
- 1 February 2026Bandırmaspor 2–0 Vanspor FK1. Lig
- 29 August 2025Vanspor FK 1–2 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 11 January 2020Bandırmaspor 1–0 Vanspor FK2. Lig
- 1 September 2019Vanspor FK 2–2 Bandırmaspor2. Lig
- 31 October 2018Bandırmaspor 0–0 Vanspor FKTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Vanspor FK and Bandırmaspor
Vanspor FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Bandırmaspor
GoalsAssists
- G. Bruno50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bandırmaspor won 2–0 at Vanspor FK. The model had made a win for Bandırmaspor its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kerem Dönertaş 46' for Bandırmaspor, Kerem Dönertaş 55' for Bandırmaspor. On expected goals it finished 0.25–1.79.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vanspor FK a 61.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 52.2% after a win, 62.1% after a draw, 66.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.7%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.
For Bandırmaspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.1% going in: 19.6% after a win, 14.4% after a draw, 11.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.6%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.