Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Bodrum FK 0-2 Keçiörengücü.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Bodrum FK, 29% draw, 30% Keçiörengücü — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Bodrum FK at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32B. TosunG
- 77B. YavuzayD
- 5A. AjetiD
- 34A. AytemurD
- 75E. KaplanD
- 20Yusuf SertkayaM
- 8M. ErdilmanM
- 11E. BilselM
- 17E. ArslanM
- 19Berkay AslanM
- 26V. AboubakarF
- 54R. AdıyamanG
- 23F. ApaydınD
- 82B. BaÅkanM
- 9Kerem KayaarasiF
- 14F. LoshajM
- 80R. ProvidenceF
- 68I. TarimD
- 4A. YılmazD
- 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
- 1M. ErdoğanG
- 12M. KeskinD
- 3Wellington NascimentoD
- 4A. ÇelikD
- 37D. AksuD
- 8I. KaraogulM
- 6E. DeveliM
- 7O. RoshiM
- 20Alcídio RaiceM
- 21F. EzehM
- 55M. DioufF
- 5O. ÇalışkanD
- 19Enes YilmazM
- 18E. SatılmışG
- 10JeffersonM
- 33S. LuşD
- 77M. FofanaF
- 45Herculano NabianF
- 2Y. BahadırD
- 16Oğuzhan AyaydınM
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bodrum FK | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 21 |
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü
- 14 February 2026Bodrum FK 4–3 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 20 September 2025Keçiörengücü 2–1 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 6 April 2024Bodrum FK 0–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 11 November 2023Keçiörengücü 1–1 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 22 January 2023Bodrum FK 1–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 21 August 2022Keçiörengücü 1–3 Bodrum FK1. Lig
Leading scorers: Bodrum FK and Keçiörengücü
Bodrum FK
GoalsAssists
- V. Aboubakar50
- E. Bilsel41
Keçiörengücü
GoalsAssists
- M. Diouf82
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Keçiörengücü won 2–0 at Bodrum FK. The model had leaned towards a win for Bodrum FK at 41% and given a win for Keçiörengücü 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Odise Roshi 25' for Keçiörengücü, Alcídio Raice 53' for Keçiörengücü. Sent off: Sefer Yılmaz (Bodrum FK) 60'. On expected goals it finished 1.15–1.24.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bodrum FK a 13.3% chance to finish in the top four: 15.9% after a win, 11.9% after a draw, 9.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.3%, 4 points lower than before the match.
For Keçiörengücü the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.7% going in: 49.1% after a win, 42.1% after a draw, 36.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.1%, 7.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Bodrum FK v Keçiörengücü has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Bodrum FK's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Bodrum FK win41%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Keçiörengücü win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.