Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Ümraniyespor 1-1 Sarıyer.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Ümraniyespor, 31% draw, 32% Sarıyer — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Ümraniyespor at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35C. TopaloğluG
- 70O. YıldırımD
- 58M. KartalD
- 44T. GlumacD
- 88E. GedikD
- 8S. GöksuM
- 10A. ĐokanovićM
- 17Berat YılmazM
- 11Álex BlancoF
- 27C. SoukouF
- 7S. HostikkaF
- 28O. AydoğanF
- 20A. BabacanM
- 9M. BostanF
- 55F. KoitaF
- 12Toheeb KosokoF
- 13Ö. KöklüG
- 77T. TaşçıF
- 66A. YaşarD
- 53B. ÖksüzD
- 13I. ŠehićG
- 77C. KarayelD
- 24K. ArslanD
- 88C. OsmanpaşaD
- 5E. KorkmazoğluD
- 8Marcos SilvaM
- 7B. AliciM
- 41F. GedikM
- 14T. ErgülM
- 10E. KaracaM
- 9B. KörF
- 19Yagiz SenM
- 11E. KaradağF
- 93M. ThiamF
- 90E. EzeF
- 23Ü. ErgünD
- 4E. DikmenD
- 17D. DavasM
- 53A. Biyogo PokoM
- 3J. AttamahD
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ümraniyespor | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 17 |
| 13 | Sarıyer | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer
- 6 March 2026Sarıyer 1–2 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
- 17 October 2025Ümraniyespor 1–3 Sarıyer1. Lig
- 11 March 2016Ümraniyespor 1–0 Sarıyer2. Lig
- 30 October 2015Sarıyer 0–2 Ümraniyespor2. Lig
The result against the call
Ümraniyespor and Sarıyer drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ümraniyespor at 37% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Oguz Yildirim 23' for Ümraniyespor, Efecan Karaca 73' for Sarıyer. On expected goals it finished 1.21–2.02.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ümraniyespor a 25.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 20.0% after a win, 25.3% after a draw, 30.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 25.3%.
For Sarıyer the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 13.8% going in: 17.9% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 11.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 12.3%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.