Tractor Sazi vs Al Shamal AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Tractor Sazi 0-0 Al Shamal.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% Tractor Sazi, 22% draw, 13% Al Shamal — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Tractor Sazi at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tractor Sazi vs Al Shamal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 81P. JafariG
- 11A. AbdullayevD
- 33F. FarajiD
- 3S. KhalilzadehD
- 22M. NaderiD
- 6M. HosseiniM
- 5O. HamrobekovM
- 7T. HalilovićM
- 4M. ZakipourM
- 70S. MoghanlouF
- 99A. HosseinzadehF
- 58M. DaneshgarD
- 44E. Darvish AaliD
- 88S. KarimazarF
- 17M. KazemayniF
- 27A. KhorramiF
- 18S. MoharramiD
- 2M. ShiriD
- 19T. ŠtrkaljF
- 23Yasin ZareG
- 95B. SeckG
- 20Y. SabalyD
- 24J. MurilloD
- 4Pablo MaríD
- 16F. BaisD
- 23Michel TermaniniM
- 28N. BenaïssaM
- 10Álex ColladoM
- 70Tiago SilvaM
- 5M. Ben RomdhaneM
- 22W. SaïdF
- 6Musab KhoderD
- 3Abdelkarim HassanD
- 45Abdullah El RadyG
- 2Moufak AwadD
- 8Ali AsadM
- 67Saoud Al KhaterG
- 14Omar AliF
- 17Abdullah AbdulsalamM
- 37Ahmed SuhailD
Form going into Tractor Sazi vs Al Shamal
Tractor Sazi
AFC Champions League Elite
- L0-1away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai14 September 2026
Al Shamal
AFC Champions League Elite
- D1-1Al-Ittihad14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tractor Sazi | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Tractor Sazi and Al Shamal drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Tractor Sazi at 65% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.41–0.55.
How the call on Tractor Sazi v Al Shamal has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 65% / 22% / 13%: the biggest move is Tractor Sazi's chance of winning, up 27 points.
- Tractor Sazi win65%▲ +27
- Draw22%▼ −9
- Al Shamal win13%▼ −18
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.