Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Sparta Rotterdam, 26% draw, 27% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Rotterdam at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle
Line-ups
- 1M. BrouwerG
- 2L. MartesD
- 3M. YoungD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 5B. KuipersD
- 6J. BaasM
- 8Cedric HatenboerM
- 7C. TerhoM
- 10S. MitoM
- 11M. van BergenM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 20F. BednarekG
- 22Joel IdehoF
- 21I. BabadiM
- 19Andrej KostićF
- 30P. KuiperG
- 14Teo QuinteroD
- 12B. ReithD
- 16A. RoaldsøyM
- 18J. ToornstraM
- 1J. SchendelaarG
- 3O. AertssenD
- 28S. GravesD
- 24N. ViergeverD
- 2S. FloranusD
- 30R. ThomasM
- 8T. SommerM
- 11D. MbayoM
- 25T. OostingM
- 22I. CissokoM
- 10K. KostonsF
- 9E. SørensenF
- 26Jadiel Pereira da GamaM
- 38G. RahajaänM
- 20G. ReizigerM
- 18O. VelanasM
- 4T. VelthuisD
- 41D. VerduinG
- 16T. de GraaffG
- 17S. van HooijdonkF
Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle
Sparta Rotterdam
- L1-2away to Excelsior29 August 2026
- D3-3Utrecht22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Telstar14 August 2026
PEC Zwolle
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Heerenveen22 August 2026
- L1-3away to Twente16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle
- 4 September 2026Sparta Rotterdam 2–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 8 March 2026Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 8 November 2025PEC Zwolle 1–0 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 15 March 2025Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 30 November 2024PEC Zwolle 1–0 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 4 February 2024Sparta Rotterdam 0–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle
Sparta Rotterdam
- M. Zonneveld4 goals1 assists
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.