5 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven Eredivisie prediction & result

Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Ajax 1-3 PSV Eindhoven.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Ajax, 28% draw, 39% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PSV Eindhoven at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ajax0%Draw4%PSV Eindhoven96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Ricardo Pepiassist: Ruben van Bommel
16'
Kodai Sano
⚽Tolu Arokodare
23'
37'
Noah Fernandez
45+1'
⚽Lutsharel Geertruida
45'
🔁Noah Fernandezout: Paul Wanner
🔁Davy Klaassenout: Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida
54'
🔁Oscar Gloukhout: Sofyan Amrabat
54'
🔁Tolu Arokodareout: Kasper Dolberg
61'
🔁Steven Berghuisout: Viktor Tsygankov
61'
63'
🔁Ricardo Pepiout: Sven Mijnans
63'
🔁Ivan Perišićout: Esmir Bajraktarević
73'
🔁Mauro Júniorout: Filip Kostić
🔁Jorthy Mokioout: Abdellah Ouazane
73'
73'
🔁Lutsharel Geertruidaout: Ryan Flamingo
74'
Filip Kostić
Davy Klaassen
80'
Youri Baas
81'
81'
Ruben van Bommel
81'
Ivan Perišić
84'
Lutsharel Geertruida
🔁Aaron Bouwmanout: Thilo Kehrer
84'
88'
🔁Armando Obispoout: Yarek Gasiorowski
90+2'
⚽Esmir Bajraktarevićassist: Sven Mijnans
Anton Gaaei
90+6'

Match stats — Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven

53%Possession47%
19Shots13
6On target5
1Corners1

Line-ups

Ajax 4-3-3
  • 1M. ter StegenG
  • 3A. GaaeiD
  • 30A. BouwmanD
  • 15Y. BaasD
  • 12Caio HenriqueD
  • 18D. KlaassenM
  • 24J. MokioM
  • 8J. BrandtM
  • 23S. BerghuisF
  • 99T. ArokodareF
  • 10O. GloukhF
Substitutes
  • 20O. EdvardsenF
  • 9K. DolbergF
  • 26M. PaesG
  • 68A. OuazaneM
  • 38Marcos LeonardoF
  • 6T. KehrerD
  • 36D. JanseD
  • 2Lucas RosaD
  • 21Jofre TorrentsD
Coach: Míchel
PSV Eindhoven 4-2-3-1
  • 32M. KovářG
  • 8S. DestD
  • 2L. GeertruidaD
  • 4A. ObispoD
  • 17Mauro JúniorD
  • 24K. SanoM
  • 31N. FernandezM
  • 5I. PerišićM
  • 20G. TilM
  • 7R. van BommelM
  • 9R. PepiF
Substitutes
  • 10P. WannerM
  • 35A. SantosM
  • 1N. OlijG
  • 41Khadim NgomG
  • 18F. KostićM
  • 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
  • 6R. FlamingoD
  • 37A. BouhamdiF
  • 19E. BajraktarevicF
Coach: P. Bosz

Form going into Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven

Ajax

  • W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
  • D2-2Heerenveen16 August 2026

PSV Eindhoven

  • W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
  • W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Ajax6411197+1213
1PSV Eindhoven6510227+1516

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven

  • 5 September 2026Ajax 1–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 2 May 2026Ajax 2–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 21 September 2025PSV Eindhoven 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
  • 30 March 2025PSV Eindhoven 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
  • 2 November 2024Ajax 3–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 3 February 2024Ajax 1–1 PSV EindhovenEredivisie

Leading scorers: Ajax and PSV Eindhoven

Ajax

  • J. Brandt3 goals
  • D. Klaassen3 goals

PSV Eindhoven

  • S. Mijnans4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.