Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Ajax 1-3 PSV Eindhoven.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Ajax, 28% draw, 39% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
PSV Eindhoven at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven
Line-ups
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 3A. GaaeiD
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 24J. MokioM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 23S. BerghuisF
- 99T. ArokodareF
- 10O. GloukhF
- 20O. EdvardsenF
- 9K. DolbergF
- 26M. PaesG
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 6T. KehrerD
- 36D. JanseD
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
- 32M. KovářG
- 8S. DestD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 17Mauro JúniorD
- 24K. SanoM
- 31N. FernandezM
- 5I. PerišićM
- 20G. TilM
- 7R. van BommelM
- 9R. PepiF
- 10P. WannerM
- 35A. SantosM
- 1N. OlijG
- 41Khadim NgomG
- 18F. KostićM
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 37A. BouhamdiF
- 19E. BajraktarevicF
Form going into Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
All competitions we cover
- W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
- W5-3FC Sion27 August 2026
- W4-2away to FC Sion20 August 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen16 August 2026
- D2-2away to Shelbourne13 August 2026
PSV Eindhoven
All competitions we cover
- W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
- W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026
- D2-2Fortuna Sittard8 August 2026
What these results say
- Ajax went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ajax had three goals or more.
- PSV Eindhoven went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 25 |
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | +25 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven
- 2 May 2026Ajax 2–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 21 September 2025PSV Eindhoven 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 30 March 2025PSV Eindhoven 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 2 November 2024Ajax 3–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 3 February 2024Ajax 1–1 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Ajax and PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare71
- J. Brandt62
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- S. Mijnans92
- G. Til71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PSV Eindhoven won 3–1 at Ajax. The model had made a win for PSV Eindhoven its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ricardo Pepi 5' for PSV Eindhoven, Tolu Arokodare 23' for Ajax, Lutsharel Geertruida 45+1' for PSV Eindhoven, Esmir Bajraktarević 90+2' for PSV Eindhoven.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.