5 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Willem II vs Excelsior Eredivisie prediction & result

Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Willem II 0-3 Excelsior.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Willem II, 30% draw, 34% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Willem II at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Willem II0%Draw1%Excelsior99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽David Gardenassist: Irakli Yegoian
34'
⚽Rick Meissenassist: Simon Janssen
🔁Eser Gürbüzout: Tonny Vilhena
45'
🔁Mats Lemmensout: Maxim Dekker
45'
kasper boogaard
51'
🔁kasper boogaardout: Thomas Verheydt
63'
64'
🔁Aymen slitiout: Ilano Silva Timas
65'
🔁Eric da Silva Moreiraout: Daniel van Vianen
71'
🔁Ágúst Orri Thorsteinssonout: Nesto groen
Jaden Slory
81'
82'
🔁David Gardenout: Giulliano Cairo
🔁Jaden Sloryout: Chido Obi
82'
85'
⚽Irakli Yegoianassist: Stijn van Gassel
87'
Nesto groen

Match stats — Willem II vs Excelsior

59%Possession41%
17Shots14
2On target6
7Corners6

Line-ups

Willem II 4-2-3-1
  • 26M. DelangheG
  • 5H. ter AvestD
  • 3F. StamD
  • 83M. LemmensD
  • 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
  • 8K. BoogaardM
  • 6C. TwigtM
  • 50E. GürbüzM
  • 19Uriel van AalstM
  • 7J. SloryM
  • 9D. HaenF
Substitutes
  • 2A. CiranniD
  • 23M. DekkerD
  • 31K. de LeeuwG
  • 15A. Et-TaïbiD
  • 14Jens MathijsenD
  • 17O. MartinF
  • 21W. van der SteenG
  • 22Per van LoonM
  • 28T. VerheydtF
Coach: J. Stegeman
Excelsior 5-4-1
  • 1S. van GasselG
  • 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
  • 3R. MeissenD
  • 4C. WidellD
  • 14J. PlugD
  • 15S. JanssenD
  • 7A. SlitiM
  • 8I. YegoianM
  • 20L. HartjesM
  • 30Á. ÞorsteinssonM
  • 19D. GardenF
Substitutes
  • 6D. van VianenM
  • 22O. TurayD
  • 18V. SulzbacherM
  • 21I. Silva TimasF
  • 40Tijmen HollaG
  • 28N. GroenF
  • 23Y. FineyM
  • 9Mario DomínguezF
  • 24Giulliano CairoM
Coach: R. den Uil

Form going into Willem II vs Excelsior

Willem II

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
  • L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026
  • L1-4away to GO Ahead Eagles8 August 2026

Excelsior

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Sparta Rotterdam29 August 2026
  • L1-2PSV Eindhoven15 August 2026
  • W4-0away to Cambuur7 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Willem II120391140-293
15Excelsior123271629-1311

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Willem II vs Excelsior

  • 30 December 2022Willem II 3–1 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 July 2021Willem II 2–0 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 April 2019Excelsior 1–1 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 15 September 2018Willem II 2–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 6 April 2018Excelsior 2–1 Willem IIEredivisie

The full Willem II vs Excelsior record →

The result against the call

Excelsior won 3–0 at Willem II. The model had leaned towards a win for Willem II at 36% and given a win for Excelsior 34%. The goals: David Garden 8' for Excelsior, Rick Meissen 34' for Excelsior, Irakli Yegoian 85' for Excelsior.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.