Willem II vs Excelsior Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Willem II 0-3 Excelsior.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Willem II, 30% draw, 34% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Willem II at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Willem II vs Excelsior
Line-ups
- 26M. DelangheG
- 5H. ter AvestD
- 3F. StamD
- 83M. LemmensD
- 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
- 8K. BoogaardM
- 6C. TwigtM
- 50E. GürbüzM
- 19Uriel van AalstM
- 7J. SloryM
- 9D. HaenF
- 2A. CiranniD
- 23M. DekkerD
- 31K. de LeeuwG
- 15A. Et-TaïbiD
- 14Jens MathijsenD
- 17O. MartinF
- 21W. van der SteenG
- 22Per van LoonM
- 28T. VerheydtF
- 1S. van GasselG
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
- 3R. MeissenD
- 4C. WidellD
- 14J. PlugD
- 15S. JanssenD
- 7A. SlitiM
- 8I. YegoianM
- 20L. HartjesM
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonM
- 19D. GardenF
- 6D. van VianenM
- 22O. TurayD
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 40Tijmen HollaG
- 28N. GroenF
- 23Y. FineyM
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 24Giulliano CairoM
Form going into Willem II vs Excelsior
Willem II
- D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
- L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026
Excelsior
- W2-1Sparta Rotterdam29 August 2026
- L1-2PSV Eindhoven15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Willem II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 2 |
| 6 | Excelsior | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Willem II vs Excelsior
- 5 September 2026Willem II 0–3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 30 December 2022Willem II 3–1 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
- 17 July 2021Willem II 2–0 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
- 21 April 2019Excelsior 1–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 15 September 2018Willem II 2–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 6 April 2018Excelsior 2–1 Willem IIEredivisie
Leading scorers: Willem II and Excelsior
Willem II
- D. Haen3 goals
Excelsior
- D. Garden3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.